Low Gas Prices Hinder Hybrid Sales, But Plug-Ins Still Selling

The national average for a gallon of regular gas has fallen to just $2.88 a gallon. That’s helped truck and SUV sales grow, but has put a hurting on hybrid sales. Sales of the Toyota Prius are hurting in particular, and hybrids share of the market seems stalled at 3%. Plug-in car sales are a different matter though.

As the LA Times notes, even inside of California where the Prius has been a best-seller for a couple of years, hybrid sales are slipping. One of the most obvious culprits are conventional gas-powered cars, many of which have narrowed the fuel economy gap that the Prius once enjoyed. Many conventional mid-size sedans can now get 30+ MPG on the highway, while hybrid cars still carry a $3,000 or $4,000 premium over comparable gas models.

Despite there now being more than 40 various hybrid vehicle offerings from just about every major carmaker, hybrid car market share is holding steady at 3% of the total market. Toyota hopes its next-gen 60 MPG Prius will turn the tides in favor of hybrids once more, but in the face of dropping gas prices, nothing is garaunteed.

But another factor not discussed by the LA Times are the increasing numbers of plug-in models available to consumers that may attract people who may have otherwise purchased a conventional hybrid. While plug-in car sales were down in Ocotober, year-to-date plug-in car sales are up 28% over the same time in 2013, with sales surpassing 75,000 units so far this year. While that’s still a fraction of total U.S. sales (and less than the total number of Prius sold so far in 2014 alone), it represents an increasing trend in America of plugging in rather than gassing up. Nissan LEAF sales alone

As Martha might say, “It’s a good thing.”

Toyota Could Lose $100,000 On Every Hydrogen FCV It Sells

Over the past 30 years, various European countries have invested close to $700 million in hydrogen fuel cell research. That brings us to today, as Toyota prepares to launch its first production fuel cell vehicle, though the way forward is fraught with challenges. By one analyst’s estimates, Toyota could lose more than $100,000 on every FCV it sells, as well as the cost of building a hydrogen fuel infrastructure.

AutoBlog Green reports that former European Parliament President Pat Cox says that hydrogen fuel cell vehicle manufacturers face a “first-mover disadvantage”, as the lack of infrastructure and high cost of vehicles fall to automakers to solve. The European Union recently gave member states the freedom to develop their own alternative fuel transportation network, dropping the requirements for hydrogen fuel stations entirely.

There are just 27 public stations spread across all of Western Europe, and while that number should increase to 47 stations by next year, at the cost of about $1.3 million each, building an extensive hydrogen fueling network will prove enormously expensive. This means costlier fuel, will a full tank of hydrogen costing $50 for about 300 miles of driving range.
But the real kicker is the cost of the vehicle itself.

Cox estimates that the Toyota FCV (also known as the Mirai) will actually cost between 50,000 and 100,000 euro more to produce than the automaker sells it for. That works out to about $66,000 to $133,000 (I split the difference at $100,000), which makes the $14,000 lost on every Fiat 500E look like small potatoes. In the U.S. the FCV will sell for around $70,000 before incentives, but Cox says that in order for any hydrogen vehicles to work in Europe, they’ll have to be financially viable independent of government incentives. Member countries will support the early stages of the network, but the onus will fall on automakers like Toyota and Hyundai to invest in the necessary infrastructure to support their vehicles.

The embedded advantages of plug-in vehicles may be too much to overcome, especially in Europe where there are already tens of thousands of charging stations spread out across the continent. There are more Tesla Superchargers (which are free, I should remind you) operating in Europe right now than there will be hydrogen fuel stations next year.

Toyota is asking people if they’re prepared to becoming a trailerblazer. But unless Toyota is prepared to make a massive investment in infrastructure along with its vehicles, hydrogen stands little chance of becoming the alt-fuel of choice in Europe.

Toyota FCV to Compete in Japanese Rally Championship

The upcoming hydrogen fuel-cell powered Toyota FCV is almost ready for prime-time, and, while Toyota believes it’s ready for public consumption, they’ve decided to prove the point by entering the car in he Japanese Rally Championship. (!)

Details are scarce, but it seems clear that the standard Toyota FCV (Toyota Mirai?) chassis will be used, upgraded with blue, silver and black graphics, mud flaps, and lightweight alloy wheels at the very least. Roll cage, fire suppression, beefier suspension components, and brake upgrades are also expected, but it’s not entirely certain that Toyota will fiddle with the standard production FCV power unit.

We’ll know soon enough, however. The Shinshiro Rally kicks off tomorrow, November 1st. If the Toyota FCV rally racer hits 60 MPH in less than 10 seconds, we’ll know it’s been upgraded. It should be a fantastic durability and performance test for hydrogen fuel cell cars!

Stay tuned!

Toyota FCV Fuel Cell Rally Car

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Source | Images: Toyota, via WorldCarFans.

First Volkswagen e-Golf Heads To Charity Auction

The Volkswagen e-Golf will hit American shores soon, and one lucky buyer will be able to buy the first one via a charity auction that benefits environmental advocacy. Running through October 29th, bidding on the CharityBuzz auction has already reached $33,500 for the rights to the first production electric Volkswagen in America. Worth it?

It most certainly is when you consider the MSRP of the e-Golf sits at about $36,265, and while it’s no 2015 Mustang, there is a bit of added prestige knowing you’re the first to own something as cutting edge as an electric car from one of the world’s largest automakers. When it does go on sale, California, Oregon, Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, DC, and Vermont.

During my brief test drive of the e-Golf, I found it more than capable of handling the rigors of driving Virginia’s backroads, and Volkswagen seems to have drawn on the lessons learned by other automakers who dove headfirst into the EV market. It’s just electric enough to be cool, and conventional enough not to draw a crowd. The Toyota FCV is doing a similar charity raffle for their hydrogen fuel cell vehicles with tickets starting at $100 each, though it’s a much more standout vehicle, and not necessarily in a good way.

For some people that’s the perfect mix., and if that sounds like your cup of tea, you can place a bid that will go towards Global Green USA. Rated at between 70 and 90 miles of range per charge and fully-loaded with nearly every option you can cram into the back of a hatchback, you could be the first on your block to rock an electric VDub.

Japan Could Offer Free Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles

Japanese automakers are betting big on hydrogen fuel vehicles, and they’ve convinced government officials to stack the deck in their favor. While the Japanese government has already signed on to offer at least $20,000 in incentives to cover the cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, some officials are reportedly calling for free hydrogen cars and fuel to early adopters.

Automotive News reports that in addition to the $20,000 from the Tokyo-based national government, Toyota’s home district of Aichi will offer an additional $10,000, bringing the cost of the Toyota FCV/Mirai down from $70,000 to just $40,000. As though that’s not enough, the Japanese government also plans to invest in some 100 hydrogen fueling stations to give drivers a place to fill up.

That’s pretty generous, but apparently there’s even a plan to offer some buyers a free, without any cost at all, hydrogen car. While these reports are tenous at best, perhaps a national lottery to give away the first 100 or so hydrogen cars to interested individuals might be a way to drum up interest amongst the general public. Who wouldn’t want a cutting-edge, free car, in exchange for taking part in an extensive driving study?

Considering all the challenges hydrogen cars have to overcome compared to battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, maybe giving a few away is a way to drum up some interest in a technology most people still don’t quite “get.”

Source: Gas 2.

Safety Exemption Sought For U.S. Sales Of The Toyota FCV

There is little doubt that the United States has some of the most onerous automotive safety regulations in the world, and sometimes that makes selling a new kind of car technology difficult. Toyota is asking for a special exemption for its FCV hydrogen fuel cell car that has to do with the separation of high-voltage components and the safety of first responders.

Bloomberg reports that the rule, FMVSS No. 305, requires automakers to isolate high-voltage components in the event of an accident in order to prevent first responders from being electrocuted. Unfortunately for Toyota, such a mechanism would render the FCV inoperable, even after a minor fender bender.

The Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model S, and other electric vehicles all integrate such a system, but Toyota is petitioning the NHTSA for a special exemption from this rule. Instead, Toyota says it will wrap high-voltage wires in extra insulation and protect the hydrogen fuel stack, electric motor, and battery with metal barriers.

With Toyota limiting sales to just 2,500 units a year at first, it’s likely the NHTSA will grant Toyota its exemption for the first couple of years while engineers figure out a better solution for the $69,000 FCV. I have to say though, for all of Toyota’s bluster on the greatness of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, the fact that they’re seeking safety exemptions isn’t exactly encouraging. The hydrogen fuel tanks may be bulletproof, but is extra insulation and metal barriers going to prevent an inexperienced first responder from getting shocked or even killed?

Toyota seems to think so, though ultimately the answer lies with the NHTSA, and while it seems unlikely, what will Toyota do if its exemption is denied? Without the RAV4 EV and Tesla to fall back on, Toyota has put all its eggs in a basket called the FCV..

Source: Toyota

The Toyota FCV Will Cost $69,000 And Refills In 3 Minutes

The production version of the Toyota FCV has been revealed, and to Toyota’s credit, it has retained much of the concept’s edgy look. While no interior photos have yet been revealed, the Toyota FCV will cost around $69,000 here in the U.S.

Production is set to begin in December, with initial sales limited to the California area, the only place in the country to have anything resembling a hydrogen fueling infrastructure. Toyota is claiming a range of 300 miles between fill-ups, which can take as little as 3 minutes, and 0 to 60 MPH will be in the ten second range.

The $69,000 price means it will still have to compete against the Tesla Model S, though its admittedly less than I thought it would cost. Can Toyota make a case for hydrogen fuel cells over battery electric cars at a time when Tesla is dominating the news cycle? The sole benefit of hydrogen seems to be the fast refueling time, something electric cars have improved by leaps and bounds in the past four years.

Is faster refilling enough to justify the switch to an entirely new and energy-intensive source of fuel? Does Toyota really think the FCV is setting the next 100 years of automotive innovation into motion?

DOE Spending $20 Million For $4 A Gallon Hydrogen, But Why?

The Department of Energy has announced a round of grants totaling $20 million with the goal of bringing hydrogen fuel costs down below $4 a gallon equivalent. That’s frankly a stupid idea, because consumers will end up paying the same (or more!) for hydrogen as they do for gasoline. So like, what is the incentive to “go green” if you can’t even pretend like it’s saving you money?

The first round of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are just starting to roll out, with the Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell leading the way. And if you thought EVs were expensive, wait until you get a load of fuel cell vehicles.  The Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell leases for $599 a month, and the Toyota FCV will be somewhere in the $75,000 range when it goes on sale next year. While the Hyundai will come with free fuel (at least at first), Toyota hasn’t mentioned a similar scheme for its hydrogen vehicles.

While it’ll all depend on specific fuel economy, if hydrogen fuel goes mainstream, consumers will end up with the same monthly fueling costs as before. Meanwhile, drivers of pure electric vehicles can save, literally, hundreds of dollars every month by filling up on cheap electricity. The Nissan Leaf is rated at 73 miles, and costs between $2 and $4 to fully charge. Split the difference at $3, and you’re still cheaper than a gallon of gasoline.

You can also plug in at home with EVs, or even better, get your power from roof-mounted solar panels, essentially refilling your car for free. The difference is even more pronounced on a long range EV like the Tesla Model S, which if charge during off-peak hours, can be fully recharged for between $4 and $10. A comparable car would need between $60 and $80 of gasoline.

I know Obama is suddenly hot for hydrogen, but it’s a dead-end technology that doesn’t benefit the customers except for one way, and that’s faster refilling, and that gap is closing thanks to the Tesla Superchargers. Oh, the government is throwing cash at that experiment too. At best, hydrogen fuel cells maintain a cost status quo for consumers, and where it comes down to dollars and cents, EVs have a major advantage. Too bad the DOE can’t figure that out.

Source: Gas 2.