Li-ion battery prices still headed way, way down, to $180/kWh by 2020

"Tonight, we're gonna party like it's 2020" doesn't quite have the same ring to it, but if Navigant Research is correct, electric-vehicle advocates will have reasons to be celebratory, whether Prince is playing or not. The research company formerly known as Pike is saying that lithium-ion battery costs may fall by almost two-thirds by the end of the decade, making EVs pretty price-competitive with comparable gas-powered cars and shortening any plug-in premium payoff period, according to Plug In Cars.

Specifically, lithium-ion costs, which are tipping the scales at about $500 per kilowatt hour now, could fall to $300 by 2015 and to $180 by 2020. In addition to the old economies-of-scale factor, battery makers are finding ways to reduce the amount of expensive cobalt used in batteries, while metal, wiring and plastic costs are also on the way down. As a result, by the end of the decade, EVs may be sold for as little as a $2,000 mark-up relative to conventional vehicles, which makes the plug-in proposition more attractive. Attractive enough, in fact, for plug-ins to account for as much as 5 percent of the new-car market by 2020, up from about a half a percent now.

While such projections have been all over the map, Navigant's is pretty close to at least one other made last summer. Last July, McKinsey & Co. put out a report saying that lithium-ion battery prices would fall from about $600/kWh to $200 by the end of the decade to a relatively thrifty $160 by 2025. We should also mention that Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated back in February of 2012 that he expected the price of cells to drop below the 200/kWh mark in the not-too-distant future.

News Source: Plug In Cars

Pike Research forecasts hybrids and plug-ins to grow to 4% of European market in 2020

Pike’s projected vehicle sales by electrified drivetrain, European markets: 2012–2020. Click to enlarge.

Pike Research forecasts that electric vehicles—conventional hybrids (HEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and battery-electrics (BEVs)—will grow from 0.7% of the market in Europe in 2012 to 4% in 2020. While that is still a small portion of the market, it represents more than 827,000 vehicles per year, Pike notes. The biggest growth is expected in BEVs followed by PHEVs, with HEVs lagging behind.

Pike Research forecasts that by 2020 more than 1.8 million BEVs will be on Europe’s roadways, along with 1.2 million PHEVs and 1.7 million HEVs.

The top six European countries for BEVs on the road in 2020 will be Germany, France, Norway, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Sweden, Pike projects, together representing more than 67% of the total market, with each having a volume in excess of six figures.

In contrast, only four countries are expected to exceed a volume of greater than 100,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles—Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom—representing 52% of the total.

The European transportation market is significantly different from other world regions. With fuel prices significantly higher than in North America for many years, small, efficient gasoline- and diesel-engine cars have led European sales figures. The popularity of diesel has resulted in hybrids not achieving the success in Europe that they have had in North America where the contrast with large V8 vehicles is important to consumers. Hybrid sales have also been strong in Asia Pacific where local buyers have always favored new technology.

In 2011, all-electric vehicles made up just less than 0.1% of the light duty market in Western Europe. France, Germany, and Norway were the sales leaders with more than 2,000 EVs sold in each country, and the United Kingdom was fourth with just over 1,000 units sold. Most sales were to utility companies, businesses, and government agencies despite the generous subsidies offered. The market is still testing the technology and in some cases waiting for the electric charging infrastructure to become established.

—“Electric Vehicles in Europe”

Source: Green Car Congress 

Pike Research ranks ChargePoint, DBT as top EV charging equipment supply companies

The new Pike Pulse Grid for EVSE manufacturers. Click to enlarge.

Pike Research forecasts that global sales of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37% between 2012 and 2020 as the global market for plug-in vehicles (PEVs) grows, rising from less than 200,000 units sold in 2012 to almost 2.4 million units in 2020.

The market is also entering a new phase, Pike notes, in which companies will be less dependent on government-funded deployments and thus required to present an attractive return on investment for potential EVSE operators. In a new Pike Pulse report, Pike evaluates 14 electric vehicle charging equipment manufacturers, and ranks ChargePoint (formerly Coulomb Technologies) and DBT as Leaders as a result of their range of feature-rich EVSE offerings, current market share, geographic reach, and vision for competing successfully in the next phase of the EVSE market. (ChargePoint and DBT USA will showcase a joint EV charging station innovation at the 2013 International Consumer Electronics Show next week in Las Vegas).

However, Pike notes, at this stage in this market’s development, it is not clear what the most viable business models are. Pike also suggests that EVSE companies will have to keep enhancing their EVSE units, reducing the cost in order to successfully compete.

The 14 electric vehicle charging equipment manufacturers in this Pike Pulse report all offer Level 2 units to residential and commercial customers, with many also offering Level 1 equipment and DC charging.

To be included in the Pike report, the EVSE companies had to:

• sell EVSE units as individual products, not EVSE provided by an automaker with its PEV;
• be a manufacturer, not just a service provider that purchased hardware from other companies;
• manufacture Level 2 chargers—i.e., excluding companies that only provide DC fast chargers; and
• be offering Level 2 chargers in at least two top 10 PEV markets or one top 10 and at least three top 11-20 countries, as defined by Pike Research in its PEV forecasts. Pike top 10 PEV markets are: Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, South Korea, United Kingdom, and United States. Pike’s top 11-20 countries are: Austria, Australia, Belgium, India, Israel, Netherlands, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and Switzerland.

The criteria for ranking were:

• Strategy: vision, go-to-market strategy, partners, production strategy and roadmap, technical innovation, and geographic reach.
• Execution: market share, sales and marketing, product performance and features, product portfolio and ecosystem, pricing, and staying power.

Based on the scoring on these criteria, Pike then ranks companies as Leaders, Contenders, Challengers, or Followers in the global market.

Leaders. Last year’s Pike Pulse did not include any Leaders. (Earlier post.) ChargePoint (formerly Coulomb Technologies) took the number one spot, joined now by DBT. Pike says that both companies have secured a significant level of market share, are operating in a range of critical geographic markets, are offering a wide range of feature-rich EVSE products, and demonstrate a focus on competing successfully in the next phase of the EVSE market.

Contenders. The majority of companies in the Pulse report were classified as Contenders. Contenders include many large conglomerates that have entered the EVSE space to complement their existing businesses: Eaton, Efacec, General Electric (GE), Leviton, Schneider Electric, and Siemens. These are companies that have not yet captured significant market share, but that score well in Strategy due to an ability to invest in product development and to leverage their existing distribution channels and power technologies, Pike suggests. These companies also tend to score well on Staying Power.

Other companies in this category are smaller and more focused on EVSE as a primary product: AeroVironment, Chargemaster, ClipperCreek, and ECOtality. Although these companies have initially captured higher market share than the majors, they lack the massive resources that will allow them to stay in the market even if it proves to be very slow growing, Pike cautions.

Challengers. Pike’s analysis found two Challengers: Legrand and Better Place. Legrand is just beginning to make a major play in this market and is focused more on the residential sector, while Better Place is a relative newcomer, having more recently started offering EVSE to complement its battery switching business.

Pike Research makes 10 electric vehicle predictions for 2013

Sales of plug-in vehicles (PEVs) in 2013 will continue to outpace the first years of hybrid vehicle sales as more than 210,000 PEVs will be sold globally and more than three dozen PEV models will debut, according to a year-end free whitepaper published by Pike Research, that makes 10 specific predictions about electric vehicles in 2013.

More broadly, Pike envisions PEV sales in California—the leading market for such in the US—expanding into smaller urban and suburban regions with more dealers beginning to offer the vehicles. Pike also anticipates forward momentum with PEVs in China. The research company also projects that several startup electric vehicle (EV) companies are likely to be absorbed or discontinue operations during the year. Within that context of accelerating sales growth, the 10 specific predictions are:

1. Capital veers from vehicles to battery components. Private funding for EV companies looking to start a business or expand in 2013 has largely dried up, Pike notes. The lack of funding opportunities will force some companies to exit the market or be acquired on less than generous terms.
   During 2013, investment will shift toward companies developing battery components, rather than companies that develop complete packs. For 2013, chemical conglomerates, such as Dow Energy Materials and BASF, will continue to invest heavily in anode, cathode, and electrolyte material research and development (R&D). Established players will face increasing competition from smaller companies and the recent startups.
   The EV battery industry continues to await commercially viable breakthroughs in energy and power density that could lead to a new level of performance. Nano-scale components and activated carbon will be among the more popular technologies in 2013, and will be used to raise additional funding and tout new plateaus of performance.
2. E-bikes surge. Sales of e-bikes in North America will grow by more than 50% in 2013 to more than 158,000 bikes, Pike forecasts. Globally, the e-bike market will grow by 10% to more than 33.6 million units during that year.
3. 48-Volt batteries. Several battery manufacturers including AllCell Technologies, Balqon, and Saft are stepping up with 48-volt lead-acid and Li-ion offerings for increasingly power-hungry vehicles with Stop-Start systems. These higher power batteries will last longer and allow the hotel load systems, such as heating and cooling, to continue to operate when the engine is off without causing the all-too-familiar phenomenon of the headlights dimming due to insufficient power. These higher power batteries are also being introduced in electric bicycles, which should enable battery manufacturers to reduce manufacturing costs by producing in greater volumes.
   Noting that higher voltage (42V) batteries were tried—and failed—more than a decade ago, Pike said that at that time, converting all onboard electronics to the higher voltage was viewed as impractical, and the cost of DC-to-DC converters was prohibitive. Since then, the cost has come down and reliability of converters has improved. Pike Research expects several automakers to design vehicles to take advantage of 48-volt batteries.
4. More than 3,400 Fuel Cell Vehicles on the road. The minority of automakers that have been investing more in fuel cell than in plug-in technology have responded to slower than anticipated PEV sales by reaffirming their commitment to commercializing fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), Pike says. Pike Research projects that 3,442 FCVs will ship in 2013 from vendors that include Toyota, Daimler, Hyundai, and Honda.
   The majority of these vehicles will not reach consumers’ hands, but will be deployed through agreements with fleets and made available to qualified participants in public trials.
5. Battery swapping gives way to battery financing. Battery swapping pioneer Better Place, which saw key executives leave in 2012, has failed to capture the expected number of subscribers to its EV service in the initial launch market of Israel and borrowed money to continue the expensive build-out of battery swap stations in Denmark. So far, only Renault has designed its vehicle to be compatible with Better Place’s battery swapping technology.
   The concept of battery swapping “will fade further into the rearview mirror in 2013,” Pike predicts.
   More companies are likely to follow the lead of Renault and lease the batteries separately, Pike suggests. A lease option reduces the upfront cost of the vehicle, while also reducing the uncertainty of real-world battery performance. Corporations are much better equipped to repurpose end-of-life EV batteries than individuals and will be able to sell into the growing market for grid energy storage. Battery leasing has also been adopted by Mia Electric and Daimler in Europe, and will begin to spread to Asia Pacific and North America by the end of 2013.
6. Germany leads Europe’s PEV growth. Like other regions of the world, the European PEV market has developed more slowly than expected, Pike acknowledges. But in 2013, the largest German automakers will come to market with at least seven models that will energize sales throughout the continent.
   Volkswagen will offer two VW-branded plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) and two BEVs, while the company’s Audi division will launch two e-tron PHEVs. BMW will begin to sell its long awaited BEV (the i3). The arrival of these vehicles will help the German PEV market more than double in 2013 to reach nearly 14,000 vehicles. Overall, Western Europe’s PEV market will grow at a similar rate to reach nearly 70,000 vehicles, with Germany representing the largest single market.
7. Coasting technology pushes internal combustion engine vehicles closer to hybrids. Stop-start technology enables an ICE vehicle’s engine to turn off when the brake is depressed and the car slows to a stop. That same concept is extending to enable an engine to be shut off when going downhill or at other times when the driver’s foot comes off the accelerator, and then restarted as necessary—i.e., coasting technology.
   According to early results from companies including Audi and BMW, coasting technology can reduce fuel consumption by as much as 10%. Coasting can be integrated with cruise control systems to further optimize fuel usage. Similar to stop-start systems upon which the technology builds, a more powerful starter-motor and battery pack are required, but the substantial fuel savings will more than justify the added cost, Pike suggests.
   Despite some challenges and liability issues, this technology will be the center of frequent discussion during 2013, Pike predicts.
8. Slow versus fast charging debate intensifies. 2013 will see a greater diversity of charging rates as the lines between fast and slow charging begin to blur and more host sites opt for less expensive Level 1 charging equipment, Pike predicts.
   Workplace and home charging will likely deem Level 1 charging fully adequate. During 2013, the mid-range of charging speeds (between 7 kW and 50 kW) will become occupied in the United States by faster Level 2 chargers that can produce AC power at up to 18 kW (where the infrastructure supports higher power) and with lower power DC chargers. In Europe, 22.7 kW chargers are already growing in popularity, and Renault is pushing 43 kW charging.
   Despite the evolution of charging equipment, some EV enthusiasts will continue to argue that EVs will only grow in demand if supported by large networks of fast DC chargers, and a few new fast-charging networks, such as Tesla Motor’s Superchargers, will dot the landscape in 2013, Pike forecasts. However, that viewpoint will be increasingly hard to validate as more PEV drivers learn to depend on slower charging.
9. Europe enables driving without borders. Enabling PEV owners to reach their destination without worrying about being stranded far from a convenient location to charge requires not only a network of AC and DC charging stations at strategic locations to enable mobility, but also a communications infrastructure that guides drivers to charging locations and a seamless payment system for charging services (i.e., roaming).
   Europe will show the greatest progress in simplifying PEV driving in 2013; if the European e-Mobility model proves successful in promoting the adoption and use of PEVs, their American counterparts are likely to at least begin the conversation about a national system later in the year.
10. The natural gas glut will tamper interest in plug-in electric trucks. Due to extensive discoveries of shale natural gas reserves across the globe during the past few years, the price of natural gas has dipped, while fuel production has expanded rapidly. This has resulted in increasing interest in manufacturing and purchasing natural gas trucks, which will deter interest in purchasing plug-in electric trucks or in manufacturers launching new models in 2013.
    Sales of natural gas trucks will grow to more than 47,000 vehicles sold in 2013.

Pike Research: 11.4 million charging stations installed by 2020

Pike Research is forecasting that the number electric vehicle charging stations will grow rapidly in the coming years, with 11.4 million chargers in operation globally by 2020. The market research and consulting firm released a report on electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) that sees 2012 being a strong year for EVSE deployment and the pace continuing from here.

The report, "Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment," is built on the premise that plug-in electric vehicle sales will see growth and drive EVSE deployment. As for the numbers, Pike Research sees more than 135,000 electric vehicles (EVs) being sold globally this year, with unit sales of EVSE coming in under 200,000. That number is expected to grow to 2.4 million EVSE sold in 2020. As for global markets, the report targets the US, Canada, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Japan, China, Korea, and Israel as places where EVSE uptake will be high. The report looks at Level 2 chargers, DC fast chargers, and wireless charging.

Pike Research does acknowledge that sales of EVs and charging station installations have been slower than expected. Almost 45,000 public charging stations will be installed globally this year, and most of this is coming from publicly funded programs, Pike Research says. There's a chicken and egg aspect to all this, too, since much of the private sector is waiting for more EVs to hit the roads before investing in more charging infrastructure. The EVSE industry is still trying to determine the best way to create a viable return on investment on EVSE station deployments for site hosts. This will become a pressing issue as publicly funded EVSE installations wind down.

Still, Pike Research remains optimistic about market growth. "Nevertheless, global sales of charging equipment are expected to grow at a steady pace as the plug-in vehicle market grows," the company says on its promotion page for the report.



Source: Autoblog Green

Pike Study: Plug-in EV sales to markedly rise this decade; 25 Percent Will Be In California

In another one of its professionally researched gauging of the direction and intensity of the winds that be, Pike Research concluded total North American sales will crest to 400,000 units annually by 2020, and to the surprise of no one, California will continue to lead the way with 25 percent of nationwide sales.

While the world waits and sees whether President Obama’s optimistic forecast of 1 million plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) will be on American roads by 2015, Pike’s projected ramp up is possibly even more impressive. Assuming its projections comes to pass, the 1 million mark ought to be reached soon enough, if not by 2015, perhaps a year or two after.

 

2020′s prediction of four-tenths of 1 million PEVs in one year is a lot. Consider that in the Volt and Leaf’s inaugural year of 2011, these and a couple other limited availability plug-in vehicles tracked by the HybridCars.com Dashboard amounted to just 17,813 units. So, to see 400,000 PEVs being sold per year will be quite a feat. In fact, it will significantly surpass last year’s far more developed hybrid market, which saw 268,807 vehicles sold in 2011 – of course this assumes the Pike estimate is not also optimistic.

Time will tell on that question, but as mentioned, Pike concludes that between 2012 and 2020 nearly one in every four PEV sold in the United States will be sold in California.

The likelihood that a North American consumer will choose to buy a PEV is based on a variety of factors: age, race, gender, income, attitudes toward renewable energy, and so on.

One other factor serves as an important indicator: geography, i.e. in which state or province and in which city the person lives.

According to the Pike report, following California, the states with the highest PEV sales over the remainder of this decade will be New York, Florida, Texas, and Washington.

“PEV sales roughly correspond to population, but other factors, including demographics, socioeconomics, and public policy, have a strong influence as well,” said senior research analyst Dave Hurst. “Florida, for example, the third largest market for PEVs, has 60 percent of the population of California, but by 2020 Florida will have only 25 percent the number of PEVs found in California.”

The actual number of PEVs forecast by 2020 is 400,073 annual sales in the United States and 107,146 in Canada, but the finer point of the story of these sales is in the cities and utility service territories where the vehicles will be located.

The state with the highest penetration rate of PEVs, as a percentage of total light-duty vehicle sales, will be Hawaii, according to the report. Here, fuel costs are high and average distances driven are relatively short.

In addition, as manufacturers launch new PEV models, the vehicles are not expected to be available equally in all areas, as original equipment manufacturers thus far have made vehicles available initially and in greater numbers in what they view as key markets before moving to nationwide rollouts.

California, the focus of both strong green vehicle policies and accelerated manufacturer rollouts, will have four of the top ten metropolitan areas for PEV sales: Los Angeles/Long Beach, the San Francisco Bay Area, San Jose/Santa Clara, and the Sacramento area.

In Canada, the provinces of Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia, which account for 75% of the Canadian population, will represent 97 percent of Canadian PEV sales by 2020. Toronto and Montreal will lead Canadian PEV sales.

The report, “Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts”, provides data and forecasts for the plug-in electric vehicle market for U.S. states and metropolitan statistical areas as well as Canadian provinces and cities.

The report also includes forecasts for PEV sales across selected electric utility service territories. The data includes sales forecasts from 2012 to 2020 at each geographic level as well as analysis of major trends in the forecasts.

Source: GM-Volt.com

Pike Research forecasts US plug-in vehicle penetration rates to be highest in smaller states

Pike Research forecasts that annual sales of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) will reach 358,959 vehicles by 2017, representing a compound anual growth rate (CAGR) of 43% between 2011 and 2017. To understand where these vehicles will likely be sold, Pike Research created a geographic forecast model using a variety of inputs including population and demographic trends; affinity towards electric vehicles; and automakers’ intended availability of vehicles.

While the most populous states will see the highest sales volumes, with California, New York and Florida likely leading the way, as a percentage of total vehicle sales, smaller states will lead, with Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, DC, and Delaware among the top states for PEV penetration.

Pike forecasts that California, New York and Florida will post cumulative PEV vehicle sales between 2011 and 2017 of 366,099, 146,242, and 101,530 units, representing 5.4%, 3.7%, and 2.8% penetration, respectively.

Hawaii, which typically has among the highest gas prices in the nation, will be the top state, with PEVs representing 6.3% of total light-duty vehicle sales in 2017. The second highest penetration rate will be in California (5.4%), followed by Oregon (5.4%), Washington, D.C. (4.6%), and Delaware (4.5%).

Pike Research forecasts that the top 5 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for cumulative electric vehicle purchases between 2011 and 2017 will be:

• New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA
• Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
• San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
• San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
• Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI

Despite being large MSAs in terms of population, Dallas, Philadelphia, Houston, Atlanta, and Washington, DC are not expected to show strong sales of PEVs, with all forecast to have fewer than 28,000 PEVs in their respective markets. California dominates the tope ten MSAs when ranked by PEV sales, with all six of the top California MSAs in the top ten, along with New York CIty, Chicago, Phoenix and Seattle.

Relative to population, the firm anticipates that PEV penetration rates will be the highest in several smaller MSAs including Raleigh-Cary, NC; San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA; and Sacramento-Arden Arcade-Roseville, CA.

Pike Research expects that the electric utilities with the largest number of electric vehicles will be:

• Southern California Edison (California)
• Pacific Gas & Electric (California)
• Consolidated Edison (New York)
• Exelon (Illinois, Pennsylvania)
• FPL Group (Florida)

PEV penetration will be influenced by several factors. Demographics, consumer attitudes, and available infrastructure will all help determine the uptake of PEVs in different areas.

—Pike Research senior analyst Dave Hurst

Using current hybrid vehicle owner demographics as a model, Pike ranked geographic regions by an index rating that compared them with the national average; the demographic measures included age, gender, household income, race and household size. The MSAs that most match the model demographics were:

• Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA
• Salt Lake City, UT
• Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO
• Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, MA
• San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA

Consumer attitudes toward electric vehicles differ from state to state, as well. Using data from Pike Research’s Electric Vehicle Customer Survey, as well as qualitative indicators, Pike Research developed an “Index of Positive Opinion” toward PEVs. Scores ranged from 4.36, for Northern California, to 0.07 (effectively, a negative overall opinion) in North Dakota (1.0 represents the national average). The top areas are:

• Northern California: 4.36
• Southern California: 2.90
• North Carolina: 2.86
• Arizona: 2.85
• Downstate NY: 2.27
• Ohio: 1.69

In addition, because of manufacturers’ rollout schedules, the availability of PEVs will vary widely by state and by region. New York and California today account for more than half of the available PEVs in the United States, while Southern states like Mississippi, Arkansas, and Alabama, as well as largely rural states such as Wyoming and Alaska, have very few plug-in electric vehicles available. This means that certain utilities, such as Southern California Edison and Pacific Gas & Electric in California and New York’s Consolidated Edison, will need to accelerate their preparations for significant rollouts of PEVs compared to their counterparts in other regions.

Pike Research’s report, “Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts”, provides data and forecasts for the plug-in electric vehicle market at the state and metropolitan statistical area levels. The report also includes forecasts for plug-in electric vehicle sales within selected electric utility service territories. The data includes sales forecasts from 2011 to 2017 at each geographic level, and analysis of major trends in the forecasts.

Source: Green Car Congress

Fuel Cell Vehicle Sales to Cross the 1 Million Mark in 2020

PRESS RELEASE

April 19, 2011

Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are part of the continuum of electric drive technologies, which are projected to capture an increasingly large share of the global passenger car and transit bus markets. For the passenger car market, fuel cells offer the benefits of zero emissions operation without the range and charging limitations of pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The fuel cell car market is now in the ramp-up phase to commercialization, anticipated by automakers to happen around 2015. According to a new report from Pike Research, commercial sales of FCVs will reach the key milestone of 1 million vehicles by 2020, with a cumulative 1.2 million vehicles sold by the end of that year.

"The fact that fuel cells for passenger cars are still being pursued may come as a surprise to casual observers of the clean vehicle technology arena," says senior analyst Lisa Jerram. "However, automakers such as Toyota, Daimler, GM, Honda, and Hyundai have all said that fuel cells are a critical piece of a complete clean vehicle portfolio. With fuel cells, they see the opportunity to offer a zero-emissions car with a 300-mile range in the larger vehicle platforms."

Jerram adds that, to meet the 2015 commercialization target, automakers will need to spend the next few years validating performance and reducing costs. Early adoption is likely to be focused in Japan, Germany, and California, where there is significant fueling infrastructure planned. Transit buses have also been used as a test bed for fuel cell technology, though they lag somewhat behind cars in the timeframe for commercial viability. Transit fuel cell buses offer zero emissions and low noise operation, as well as greater fuel efficiency than internal combustion engines. Pike Research's projections are for commercially viable transit buses to follow that of light-duty vehicles (LDVs), with this market more dependent on subsidies or incentives for adoption than the car market.

Pike Research's analysis indicates that, during the pre-commercialization period from 2010 to 2014, approximately 10,000 FCVs will be deployed. Following that phase, the firm forecasts that 57,000 FCVs will be sold in 2015, with sales volumes ramping to 390,000 vehicles annually by 2020. These figures represent a downgrade from Pike Research's previous FCV forecasts published in the first quarter of 2010.

Pike Research's report, "Fuel Cell Vehicles", analyzes opportunities and challenges in the development of commercially viable fuel cell cars, buses, and trucks. The report provides an examination of the key market drivers and barriers for FCV development in the face of competition from incumbent internal combustion engine vehicles and new plug-in electric vehicles. The report includes a status update on the progress of fuel cell R&D toward meeting commercial technical and cost targets for cars and buses. The report also covers key countries' policies promoting development and adoption of FCVs, strategies and plans of major industry players, and discussion of the vehicle segments and drivetrain configurations under development. The report forecasts global pre-commercial deployments of LDVs and buses through 2014, global commercial sales of LDVs and buses from 2015 through 2020, and potential revenue from fuel cell LDVs from 2015 through 2020. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm's website.

Pike Research is a market research and consulting firm that provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The company's research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy, Smart Grid, Smart Transportation, Smart Industry, and Smart Buildings sectors. For more information, visit www.pikeresearch.com or call +1.303.997.7609.

Pike Research Forecasts Future EV Sales - Looks Like a Slow Start

Pike projections of cumulative light duty plug-in electric vehicle sales, 10 largest MSAs by population, 2011-2017. Click to enlarge.

Pike Research has earlier forecasted the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market at the national level in the US, globally, and within world regions and key countries. The company has now constructed a model for plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales at the US state level, metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level and for selected utility company territories.

Overall, Pike expects sales of PEVs to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43% between 2011 and 2017, reaching a nationwide total of 358,959 vehicles by 2017. Pike forecasts that, “unsurpisingly” California, New York and Florida will likely lead the way in PEV sales in the early years of the decade, with 366,099, 146,242 and 101,530 cumulative vehicle sales between 2011 and 2017, respectively. By 2017, PEVs will represent a 5.4%, 3.7% and 2.8% of the total new vehicle sales in these state (2.4% is the national average).

Within the top 10 largest MSAs in the US, New York City and Los Angeles are projected to lead with 116,718 and 96,175 PEVs by 2017. Pike concludes that the combination of a large population area, early rollout schedules from vehicle manufacturers, and positive attitudes toward PEVs for these MSAs will result in strong growth rates of 41% and 35% CAGR, respectively, between 2011 and 2017.

Dallas, Philadelphia, Houston, Atlanta and Washington DC are not expected to show strong sales of PEVs; all are forecast to have fewer than 28,000 PEVs in their markets by 2017. California dominates the top 10 MSAs when ranked by PEV sales, with all six of the top California MSAs in the top 10.

Pike Research forecasts that the top 5 (MSAs) for cumulative electric vehicle purchases between 2011 and 2017 will be:

• New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA
• Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
• San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
• San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
• Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI

Relative to population, the firm anticipates that PEV penetration rates will be the highest in several smaller MSAs including Raleigh-Cary, NC; San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA; and Sacramento-Arden Arcade-Roseville, CA.

Pike Research expects that the electric utilities with the largest number of electric vehicles will be:

• Southern California Edison (California)
• Pacific Gas & Electric (California)
• Consolidated Edison (New York)
• Exelon (Illinois, Pennsylvania)

To generate the more detailed forecasts, Pike utilized a variety of data to evaluate the development of demand and sales: population and demographics; plug-in electric vehicle attitudes; and manufacturer vehicle rollout schedule.

Source: Green Car Congress

Pike Resarch Poll Reveals Customer Interest in PHEV's

This is exactly the results we are looking for. Nearly half of the respondents in this poll were extremely interested in PHEV technology and were willing to purchase this type of vehicle. Another interesting statistic is that 82% of the poll takers drive less than 40 miles per day with twenty seven miles round trip being the average. A 40 mile all electric PHEV seems to make perfect sense.

From PikeResearch.com:

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are one of the most highly anticipated new product categories of recent years. Promising dramatically improved fuel economy over standard internal combustion engines, PHEVs are expected to drive significant benefits in the form of reduced carbon emissions and lesser dependence on foreign oil. According to a new survey from Pike Research, prospective consumer interest in the category is solid, with 48% stating that they would be “extremely” or “very” interested in purchasing a PHEV with a 40-mile range on a single charge.

“Plug-in hybrids match the driving requirements of most consumers we surveyed,” says managing director Clint Wheelock. “82% of respondents drive 40 miles or less per day, with an average daily driving distance of 27 miles.”

Other key findings of the survey are as follows:

• 85% of consumers stated that improved fuel efficiency would be an important factor when choosing their next vehicle.
• 65% of survey respondents interested in PHEVs expressed a willingness to pay a premium price, over and above the price of a standard gasoline vehicle, with an average premium of 12%.
• Consumers indicated that the availability of workplace, private, and public vehicle charging stations in their local area would be very important.
• 79% of consumers would be interested in investing in a fast-charging outlet for their home; however, willingness to pay is out of line with industry expectations.

Pike Research’s report, “Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey”, analyzes results from a web-based survey of 1,041 U.S. consumers. The report includes a detailed analysis of consumer demand and willingness to pay for PHEVs and their associated vehicle charging infrastructure. Segmentation analysis includes an examination of demand within different demographic and behavioral groups. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm’s website.

Pike Research is a market research and consulting firm that provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The company’s research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Renewable Energy, Clean Transportation, Clean Industry, Green Consumers, and Environmental Management sectors. For more information, visit www.pikeresearch.com or call +1.303.997.7609.