Pike Research Forecasts Future EV Sales - Looks Like a Slow Start

Pike projections of cumulative light duty plug-in electric vehicle sales, 10 largest MSAs by population, 2011-2017. Click to enlarge.

Pike Research has earlier forecasted the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market at the national level in the US, globally, and within world regions and key countries. The company has now constructed a model for plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales at the US state level, metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level and for selected utility company territories.

Overall, Pike expects sales of PEVs to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43% between 2011 and 2017, reaching a nationwide total of 358,959 vehicles by 2017. Pike forecasts that, “unsurpisingly” California, New York and Florida will likely lead the way in PEV sales in the early years of the decade, with 366,099, 146,242 and 101,530 cumulative vehicle sales between 2011 and 2017, respectively. By 2017, PEVs will represent a 5.4%, 3.7% and 2.8% of the total new vehicle sales in these state (2.4% is the national average).

Within the top 10 largest MSAs in the US, New York City and Los Angeles are projected to lead with 116,718 and 96,175 PEVs by 2017. Pike concludes that the combination of a large population area, early rollout schedules from vehicle manufacturers, and positive attitudes toward PEVs for these MSAs will result in strong growth rates of 41% and 35% CAGR, respectively, between 2011 and 2017.

Dallas, Philadelphia, Houston, Atlanta and Washington DC are not expected to show strong sales of PEVs; all are forecast to have fewer than 28,000 PEVs in their markets by 2017. California dominates the top 10 MSAs when ranked by PEV sales, with all six of the top California MSAs in the top 10.

Pike Research forecasts that the top 5 (MSAs) for cumulative electric vehicle purchases between 2011 and 2017 will be:

• New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA
• Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
• San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
• San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
• Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI

Relative to population, the firm anticipates that PEV penetration rates will be the highest in several smaller MSAs including Raleigh-Cary, NC; San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA; and Sacramento-Arden Arcade-Roseville, CA.

Pike Research expects that the electric utilities with the largest number of electric vehicles will be:

• Southern California Edison (California)
• Pacific Gas & Electric (California)
• Consolidated Edison (New York)
• Exelon (Illinois, Pennsylvania)

To generate the more detailed forecasts, Pike utilized a variety of data to evaluate the development of demand and sales: population and demographics; plug-in electric vehicle attitudes; and manufacturer vehicle rollout schedule.

Source: Green Car Congress