Plug-In Electric Cars Sales In U.S. Surpass 1 Million

1,000,000 plug-in electric cars sold in U.S.

Thanks to nearly 45,000 plug-in cars sold in September, cumulative sales of all plug-in models reached one million units. For mainstream consumers, electrification began in December 2010, when the first Nissan LEAFs and Chevrolet Volts were delivered – we tracked those numbers with passion every month!

Technically, our tally of mainstream models indicates almost 999,500 (since December 2010 through the end of September 2018), but first – it’s partially estimated (the error is within few thousands or 0.5% we believe) and secondly – there is are less than a few thousand road-legal plug-ins outside of our mainstream tracking (like the Tesla Roadster) that have been sold (since 2008).

In other words, we are sure that in the last days of September or first few days of October, the U.S. crossed 1 million plug-in electric cars! The government’s goal was to achieve 1 million by the end of 2015. Well, we did it by 2018.

This year sales already exceed 230,000 and should be close to 400,000 for the full year of 2018.

U.S. Plug-In Car Sales – September 2018

The most popular brands that together represents 70% of sales were:

• Tesla – 273,773 (Model S + Model X + Model 3, without Roadster)
• General Motors – 193,430 (Chevrolet Volt, Bolt EV, Spark EV plus Cadillac ELR & CT6 PHV)
• Nissan – 125,513 (LEAF)
• Ford - 110,130 (Fusion Energi, C-Max Energi, Focus Electric)

Plug-In Electric Car Sales Cross 400,000 Globally In Three Years

In global terms, plug-in car sales are still a drop in the ocean.

That's to be expected--we've only had volume production models for the last three or four years. Disruptive products always take a little while to get going.

But global plug-in electric car sales have now topped 400,000 units--a figure expected to rise into the millions by 2016, if expected increases continue.

What the number alone doesn't tell you--but German research group ZSW notes (via Autoblog Green)--is that 400,000 units is around double the number we had a year ago.

That, in turn, was double the number of electric vehicles we had at the end of 2011 and start of 2012. No other market segment can boast such figures.

Though the figures include plug-in hybrid vehicles as well as pure battery electric cars, the numbers don't include regular hybrids, plug-in motorcycles or large vehicles like buses and trucks.

In terms of countries, the U.S. can hold its head up high, buying more plug-ins than any other country: 174,000 of them by the end of 2013. Japan (68,000) and China(45,000) are next up, with individual European countries following behind. The Netherlands alone touted 30,000 plug-ins by the end of 2013.

Topping the table of individual manufacturers is Nissan, which boasted Leaf sales of 90,000 units by the end of 2013. That number has since crossed 100,000 cars, and as April begins the total will be higher still.

General Motors is next up, carried by the Volt and to a lesser extent, its European Ampera cousin.

Toyota (fielding its Plug-In Prius), Tesla, PSA (Peugeot-Citroen), Ford and Renault follow, with Daimler, BMW and VW just scraping onto the list.

It's worth noting that the latter German duo are likely to see a spike in plug-in sales over the next few years--BMW will have its i3 and i8 models on the market, while Volkswagen and Audi launch the Volkswagen e-Golf, Golf GTE, e-Up electric city car and Audi's A3 Sportback e-tron.

While plug-in car sales are unlikely to double each year from now on, the numbers will certainly increase, likely hitting a million vehicles by the start of 2016.

That'll still be a drop in the ocean--there were already an estimated billion cars on the world's roads by 2011.

But a million plug-ins is better than no plug-ins at all--and combined fuel and emissions savings will be almost unimaginable.

Source: Green Car Reports

Pike Research Forecasts Future EV Sales - Looks Like a Slow Start

Pike projections of cumulative light duty plug-in electric vehicle sales, 10 largest MSAs by population, 2011-2017. Click to enlarge.

Pike Research has earlier forecasted the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market at the national level in the US, globally, and within world regions and key countries. The company has now constructed a model for plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales at the US state level, metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level and for selected utility company territories.

Overall, Pike expects sales of PEVs to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43% between 2011 and 2017, reaching a nationwide total of 358,959 vehicles by 2017. Pike forecasts that, “unsurpisingly” California, New York and Florida will likely lead the way in PEV sales in the early years of the decade, with 366,099, 146,242 and 101,530 cumulative vehicle sales between 2011 and 2017, respectively. By 2017, PEVs will represent a 5.4%, 3.7% and 2.8% of the total new vehicle sales in these state (2.4% is the national average).

Within the top 10 largest MSAs in the US, New York City and Los Angeles are projected to lead with 116,718 and 96,175 PEVs by 2017. Pike concludes that the combination of a large population area, early rollout schedules from vehicle manufacturers, and positive attitudes toward PEVs for these MSAs will result in strong growth rates of 41% and 35% CAGR, respectively, between 2011 and 2017.

Dallas, Philadelphia, Houston, Atlanta and Washington DC are not expected to show strong sales of PEVs; all are forecast to have fewer than 28,000 PEVs in their markets by 2017. California dominates the top 10 MSAs when ranked by PEV sales, with all six of the top California MSAs in the top 10.

Pike Research forecasts that the top 5 (MSAs) for cumulative electric vehicle purchases between 2011 and 2017 will be:

• New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA
• Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
• San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
• San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
• Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI

Relative to population, the firm anticipates that PEV penetration rates will be the highest in several smaller MSAs including Raleigh-Cary, NC; San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA; and Sacramento-Arden Arcade-Roseville, CA.

Pike Research expects that the electric utilities with the largest number of electric vehicles will be:

• Southern California Edison (California)
• Pacific Gas & Electric (California)
• Consolidated Edison (New York)
• Exelon (Illinois, Pennsylvania)

To generate the more detailed forecasts, Pike utilized a variety of data to evaluate the development of demand and sales: population and demographics; plug-in electric vehicle attitudes; and manufacturer vehicle rollout schedule.

Source: Green Car Congress