BMW Group to build future MINI E vehicles in China with Great Wall Motor

The BMW Group and Great Wall Motor have launched a new joint venture—Spotlight Automotive Limited—and are building a joint plant in China, where the BMW Group will produce future fully-electric models of its MINI brand.

The plant will have a standard capacity of up to 160,000 vehicles per year, which will require around 3,000 employees after the ramp-up phase. Both partners will together invest around €650 million (more than five billion CNY). The construction phase is planned for 2020 to 2022.

In summer 2018, the 50:50 joint venture agreement was signed in Berlin in the presence of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

As well as production, the innovative joint venture model also includes joint development of battery-electric vehicles in the world’s largest market for electromobility.

The joint venture envisages production of future electric MINI vehicles, as well as several models and brands for Great Wall Motor. Following the launch of the brand-new first-generation fully-electric MINI, which will be built at Oxford and come to market in the first quarter of 2020, this is another important step towards the MINI brand’s electrified future.

MINI Plant Oxford, which recently built the 10 millionth car since the brand’s launch in 1959, will remain the heart and home of MINI manufacturing, while the Spotlight Automotive joint venture will provide additional capacity and flexibility.

Zhangjiagang was chosen as the location of the Spotlight plant because of its solid supplier network, skilled workforce and good infrastructure. Jiangsu is also one of the leading provinces for finance, education and technology.

The BMW Group is firmly committed to continuing its successful cooperation with established sales structures and channels in China. The joint venture will not be creating an additional sales organization in China for future electric vehicles. Every joint venture partner will use their own sales channel for their specific brands.

The BMW Group is already a leading supplier of electrified vehicles. By the end of 2021, the company aims to have more than one million fully-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids on the roads worldwide.

At that point, the BMW Group will offer five fully-electric production vehicles. Alongside the BMW i3, which saw demand increase by approximately 20% so far this year, production of the fully-electric MINI will also begin at the Oxford plant (UK) this month.

More than 78,000 customers have so far expressed an interest in the MINI ELECTRIC. In 2020, production of the fully-electric BMW iX3 will begin at the Shenyang plant (China), followed in 2021 by the BMW iNEXT, which will be built at the Dingolfing plant (Germany). The BMW i4 is also due to go into series production at the Munich plant in 2021.

By 2023, the company will already offer 25 electrified models—more than half of which will be fully electric. Flexible vehicle architectures, which allow a model to be driven fully electrically, as a plug-in hybrid or with a combustion engine, form the basis for this, as well as a highly flexible production system.

Global BMW Group electrified vehicle sales pass 400K mark

In May, cumulated BMW Group electrified sales topped the 400,000 mark with a total of 406,756 fully-electric and plug-in hybrid models delivered to customers since the BMW i3 first went on sale in November 2013.

Five and a half years after it was launched, demand for the iconic BMW i3 continues to grow with global sales in May up 40.0%.

Overall sales of BMW Group electrified vehicles grew by 9.8% in May, as customers show increasing interest in low emissions mobility.

Deliveries of the plug-in hybrid BMW 2 Series Active Tourer quadrupled in May and sales of the electrified BMW 5 Series increased by 40.4%.

Sales of the plug-in hybrid MINI Cooper S E Countryman ALL4 in May were almost three times as high as the same month last year.

By the end of next year, the BMW Group will have introduced ten new or updated electrified models and by the end of this year, the company expects to have a total of half a million electrified vehicles on the roads.

The Biggest Challenge Facing Electric Cars Is Still Affordability

Falling EV battery prices resulted in longer range. Not lower purchase prices.

When Elon Musk announced job cuts at Tesla last week, he gave a clear reason for the belt-tightening. “We face an extremely difficult challenge: making our cars, batteries, and solar products cost-competitive with fossil fuels,” he wrote to his employees. “While we have made great progress, our products are still too expensive for most people.”

Tesla showed the world that electric cars can provide long range, luxury, and incredible performance. Its vehicles upended the notion that EVs were cramped and compromised city cars. The whole industry followed Tesla by increasing the size of its batteries. That’s a good thing. But it has not helped with EV affordability.

Yes, the cost of EV batteries continues to fall. So far, that hasn’t translated to lower prices for electric cars. “Decreasing prices as a function of the battery price has allowed automakers to put vehicles out there with larger and larger batteries,” Scott Shepard, an analyst at Navigant Research, told InsideEVs. “The purchase price hasn’t dipped down. As federal purchase incentives come out of the market, you’re likely to see prices stay at the same level for you the next four to five years.”

Shepard said that Tesla’s strategy to start with the top of the market made a lot of sense. “The price premium is significantly diminished in the luxury segment because there are a lot more bells and whistles,” he said. “In the economy segment, it’s significantly more difficult to make those trade-offs.”

A People’s (Electric) Car?

That’s precisely the point made this week by Hans Dieter Pötsch, Volkswagen’s chairman. He said that it will be difficult to make a viable business out of small, entry-level EVs.

Pötsch explained: “The current price level cannot stay the same if these cars are equipped with electric motors. Therefore, it will inevitably lead to significant price increases in the small car segment.” As a result, Pötsch said that EVs could very well remain “unaffordable for people on low incomes.”

If he’s right, we can expect wealthy people to buy electric Audis, BMWs, Jaguars, Porsches, and Teslas – and even relatively expense models from the likes of Chevy. But lower-income folks will have to wait for those cars to show up on the used market.

These trends are confirmed by a survey of more than more than 22,000 EV drivers conducted by PlugInsights, the world’s largest EV driver-research panel. There’s a big distinction between consumers buying expensive long-range EVs with big batteries and those driving lower-cost electric cars with smaller batteries.

The least expensive EV is the Smart EQ ForTwo. It sells for about $16,000 after incentives.

Forty-five percent of EV buyers who bought long-range EVs (Tesla cars and the Chevy Bolt) make more than $200,000 a year. With the introduction of the Model 3, the percentage of long-range EV buyers making more than $200k has decreased to about 38 percent. But the overall EV slightly shifted toward wealthier buyers.

Meanwhile, EV buyers who purchased an electric car with fewer than 150 miles of range are a different set. Only 17.5 percent of those EV drivers make more than $200,000. From 2011 to 2018, 38 percent of folks buying lower-range EVs make less than $100,000 a year.

Elon is right. He said it five years ago and he said it again last week. EV affordability is an “extremely difficult challenge.” His email to Tesla staff explained what he believes is at stake: “Our mission of accelerating the advent of sustainable transport and energy, which is important for all life on Earth.”

Study Says Daimler Will Overtake Tesla In EV Rank – Model 3 Issues Cited For Fall

German car makers could catch up to Tesla in just a few years

The current state of affairs at the German car industry giants – Daimler AG, BMW AG and Volkswagen AG – sort of resembles that first day of boot camp when the hardened drill sergeant comes into the dorm room at 4 in the morning and pulls off the fire alarm. In a nutshell, everybody’s scrambling and for the most part, look like headless chickens trying to make themselves look useful. However, according to Bloomberg, just like the marine recruits, after a few months of proper testing and training, the German car industry is set to reinvent itself as an electric vehicle powerhouse.

According to a consultancy’s ranking of electric automakers, Daimler AG, BMW AG, and Volkswagen AG might soon close by or surpass Tesla in the EV market. The ranking comes from PA Consulting, a consultancy specializing in management consulting, technology and innovation. Their ranking system factors in the strategy, battery technology, culture, supplier networks, partnerships and financial performance into an overall score. While this couldn’t be farther from reality (with the current state of affairs), the sheer might – engineering, design, production and financial aspects of the car industry. With that in mind, the German car makers are on a path to might swivel the odds in their favor within the next few years.

According to the forecast set by consultancy, Tesla is to remain the king of the castle to at least 2021. This is the time when the traditional rivals are set to flood the market with a variety of fully electric models, giving Tesla a run for their money. The forecast doesn’t go easy on Tesla, as it weighs down the California based automaker with a fall to seventh place. The pecking order in 2021 should see Daimler firmly at the helm. The Stuttgart based vehicle industry giant is then closely followed by BMW, the Renault Nissan Mitsubishi alliance and finally, the dieselgate struck, but clearly not that hurt – Volkswagen – filling the list’s last top spot before Tesla.

BMW Concept iX3

“Achieving CO2 targets and improving e-mobility performance go hand in hand,” Thomas Göttle, head of PA Consulting’s automotive business, said in a statement. “For the manufacturers, however, this also involves a great need for action in terms of organization and personnel.”

For Tesla, the highly-touted production issues, matched with an uncertain profit outlook, all played a major key in the lower ranking for the U.S carmaker, according to PA Consulting. However, there’s a long way to go until 2021, and Tesla Motors may well turn the tide. Their production woes are slowly becoming less of a burden, new markets are emerging for the electric car maker and overall, the demand for electric cars is ever growing.

Looks like we’ll find out in 2021 if this prediction turns out to be accurate.

March 2018 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card

This March assures that 2018 plug-in sales will be on the rise toward a massive year.

March will mark the 30th month of consecutive year-over-year monthly sales gains* for plug-in vehicles. The month should continue the trend toward a monumentally impressive year for the segment.

The start of 2018 was a bit rocky, with January numbers below our estimates. Sure, the first month of the year is historically never stellar for the segment, but sales were lower than most expected. February came and we had to wait forever to get the final numbers, but, in the end, it was worth the wait. The month exceeded our forecast significantly.

March has now come and gone and we’re eager to get all the figures in so that we can paint a better picture of the year ahead. Nearly every vehicle on our chart showed growth from January to February, some of which was massive. This trend should continue throughout the year, with March already beginning top secure solid proof.

While numbers are still coming in, we can say that we expect the potential for considerable gains this March over last year’s numbers. We’re estimating well over ~20,000 plug-ins sold. If our estimates come to life, it will surpass March 2017’s impressive 18,542 plug-ins sold.

While 2017 plug-in sales fell just shy of the 200,000 mark, it was still an extremely impressive year as a whole. Hitting that mark for 2018 will happen well before the end of the year. However, there are many variables involved in determining where we might be by the end of this year. Will we see 300,000?

Check Out: Contributor Josh Bryant’s 2018 yearly sales predictions here

Despite Tesla Model 3 production issues, recent Q1 sales information reported by Tesla shows that March deliveries are a huge improvement over February. Tesla delivered a whopping 3,820 Model 3s last month.

We’ve sorted out the international deliveries and related math for the Model S and X. It appears the automaker delivered an estimated 9,800 total S and X vehicles in the U.S. This puts March deliveries at 3,375 Model S sedans and 2,825 Model X SUVs, which closely mirrors the same month in 2017.

Nissan has finally got the ball rolling with U.S.-based 2018 LEAF production and inventory. Deliveries soared in February, but only due to several months of almost non-existent sales. The numbers are up significantly for March, with 1,500 LEAFs sold, a 1.5% increase from last year’s 1,478. In comparison to last month’s 895 deliveries, this is a heroic effort.

That brings us to Chevrolet’s plug-in siblings, the Volt and Bolt, neither of which had a stellar January. The Volt’s downturn continued in February, but fortunately, Bolt sales were up month-over-month and year-over-year. March brings continued sales growth for the Bolt, at 1,774, up 81.4% from March of 2017. 

Volt sales continue the downward trend when compared to last year’s numbers, but only by a bit (-16.4%). However, Chevy sold an impressive 1,782 Volts this March. Last year, the automaker sold more Volts in March than any other month, at a whopping 2,132. But, this is still a very promising number considering the Volts situation as of late.

Other vehicles that deserve mention are the Toyota Prius Prime and Honda Clarity PHEV. The Prime closed out 2017 in the fourth spot overall on our sales chart and has maintained second place thus far this year. The Clarity PHEV secured a very strong December, which was its first full month of sales. It succeeded again in February, edging it closer to the top competitors in the segment.

For March, Toyota delivered 2,922 Prime plug-ins, keeping it near the top of the list once again. Honda has reported a total of 1,061 Clarity PHEVs sold in March.

Questions entering March: (with answers in parentheses as they come in)

• Now that 2018 Nissan LEAF inventory has grown, have sales numbers seen a notable surge? (Yes. For March, Nissan delivered 1,500 LEAFs, which is on par with numbers from March of 2017 (1,478). However, it’s a leap from February’s 895.)
• After the Chevrolet Bolt’s weak showing in January and more promising February, how will it close out Q1? (The Bolt had a strong March, with 1,774 deliveries.)
• The Chevrolet Volt continues to struggle as deliveries have dropped year-over-year for 11 months in a row. Will strong sales this March finally end this streak? (Yes! In fact, GM sold a handful more Volts than Bolts last month, at 1,782. This is down from last year’s exceptional March, but promising nonetheless.)
• Will the Tesla Model 3 prove more sales growth and stay at the top of our scorecard for the third month in a row, despite potential production concerns? (For sure. Tesla delivered 3,820 Model 3s this March, to end the quarter with over 8,000 sold).
• How much will Tesla Model S and Model X sales be impacted by the continued rise in Model 3 deliveries? (Sales were down a little from Q1 2017’s 10,400, but not significantly.)
• Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV sales tripled from its first U.S. sales month to January, only to flatline in February. Will sales for March improve? (Just a bit, at 373 compared to February’s 323.)
• Will the Toyota Prius Prime hold its spot near the top of the chart? (Yes. Toyota sold 2,922 Prime plug-ins this March, up again from last year’s numbers by an impressive 74.1%. It’s also up significantly from last month’s figures, and we’re pretty confident that the Prime will continue to rein No. 2 to the Tesla Model 3.)
• Honda Clarity PHEV deliveries were back on the rise in February after a drop the month before, which earned it a new home in our recaps. Will the growth continue?  (Yes. Honda has reported a total of 1,061 Clarity PHEVs sold in March.)
• The Kia Niro PHEV and Hyundai IONIQ PHEV both proved a giant leap in their second month of U.S. sales. Can we expect an even greater boost for March?

Also of note: Toyota sold 83 Mirai this March

Last update: April 3, 2018, at  3:20 PM

*Regarding “year of monthly sales” improvements: We know someone is going to look at the chart and say, “hey, only ~11,467 sales were made in May of 2016, when 11,540 were logged in 2015!  What gives InsideEVs?”  What gives is – through an odd scheduling quirk, only 24 selling days were reported in May 2016 (versus 26 in 2015)

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Below Chart: An individual run-down of each vehicle’s monthly result and some analysis behind the numbers. (Previous year’s monthly results can be found on our fixed Scorecard page here)

2018 Monthly Sales Chart For The Major Plug-In Automakers – *Estimated Tesla Sales Numbers – Reconciled on Quarterly Totals, ** Estimated (Based on State/Rebate Data and other reports), Credit to HybridCars.com for assistance on Hyundai/some BMW data. BEV models appear in BOLD font (BMW i3 sales are mixed with REx [PHEV] sales)

Individual Plug-In Model Sales Recap For Major Models:

(Limited to vehicles with ~500 sales/or potential for 500 sales in a given month)

2017 Chevrolet Volt

Chevrolet Volt:  

The Chevrolet Volt entering January found itself continuing an unfortunate streak of nine consecutive months of year-over-year losses. 2017 fourth-quarter sales alone were down some 3,000 units from the previous year.

January sales made it ten months of losses in a row, as 713 were sold, some 55.7% lower than a year ago (1,611). For February, the Volt continued its downturn with a total of 983 sold, which was 46% lower than last year’s impressive 1,820. However, it’s up significantly from this January’s numbers.

It has become more than obvious that the Volt’s stablemate, the Chevy Bolt EV, is stealing the Volt’s thunder. For as many months as the Volt has been down and dropping, the Bolt has been up and gaining. Keep in mind, this is definitely not a bad thing, it’s just different … and, in all honesty … better. It means less gas burned!

GM sold a total of 1,782 Volts for the month of March, down 16.4% from last year’s 2,132. However, this is a huge and welcome sales surge for the Volt.

Additionally, the Toyota Prius Prime is a substantial and successful contender, the Honda Clarity PHEV has arrived and is selling well, and last month, the Kia Niro PHEV and Hyundai IONIQ PHEV join the club.

Chevrolet Bolt EV

Chevrolet Bolt EV: 

The Chevrolet Bolt EV made its debut in December of 2016, as a 2017 model. However, it wasn’t technically available nationwide until August of 2017, but only a handful of copies landed in those 30-odd new states during that month.

That began to change in September. More evenly spread inventory led to rapid Bolt EV sales growth, notching 2,632 sales during that month.

October brought 2,781 deliveries, but November took that number even higher, as 2,987 sales were made. For December, GM eclipsed the 3K threshold by moving 3,227 Chevrolet Bolts, finishing 2017 with a 10-month streak of sales gains.

Unfortunately, in January only 1,177 Bolts were delivered, which a mere 1.3% gain over last January’s 1,162. For February, GM delivered 1,424 Bolt EVs, up 49.6% from last February’s 952 sold.

Bringing the quarter to a close, GM sold 1,774 Bolt EVs in March, up 81.4% from last year’s 978.

2018 Nissan LEAF

Nissan LEAF:

The Nissan LEAF entered February as the oldest offering on the U.S. market – going on 87 months now.

As you all know by now, it has been replaced by the updated 2018 Nissan LEAF, which debuted in September (full details here).

Is the new LEAF better?

Yes, in every way, including ~43 more miles range (up to 150 miles from 107) for $700 less. Not enough?  A ~225 mile, higher performance trim level arrives later in 2018 (as a 2019 MY car).

Sadly, Nissan USA proved not as capable as Nissan Japan, which managed to launch the new LEAF as planned in October (to some very impressive results), while the U.S. (and Europe) had to wait until January. This wouldn’t be a problem if the wind-down of the first-gen 2017 model wasn’t pre-planned to be defunct by October.

The resulting gap between the ‘new’ and ‘old’ left Nissan with almost no remaining inventory, which caused sales in October to drop to just 213 deliveries, ending an impressive eight-month run of four-digit results. In November, that number dropped further, to 175 sales. December, the best-selling month for EVs, saw only 102 LEAFs delivered. We’re pretty sure Nissan is wishing it had done things differently, as the LEAF closed out 2017 down some 20% overall.

Fast forward to today, when the LEAF was supposed to have been rolling off of lots two months ago, and that’s not quite how it worked out. Cars didn’t begin arriving until January in small numbers and they were pegged for reservation holders. Nissan told us it would be mid-February before another shipment of LEAFs became available at dealers for new buyers, which we figured would result in a sales bump, albeit small. Hopefully, by March, we’ll be able to report healthy sales figures for the all-new LEAF.

In January, Nissan delivered 150 LEAFs, down 80.6% from last January’s 772. For February, sales increased to 895, which was hugely promising, only down ~14% from last year’s numbers. As a point of reference, last February, Nissan delivered over 1,000 LEAFs.

For March, Nissan delivered 1,500 LEAFs, which is on par with numbers from March of 2017 (1,478). However, it’s a leap from February’s 895.

2017 Toyota Prius Prime

Toyota Prius Prime: 

After 18 months of waiting for the first-generation Prius plug-in to be replaced, the Toyota Prius Prime (details) arrived on U.S. dealers lots over a year ago, and sales have been brisk ever since.

After setting a new high of 1,908 in May, it was expected that with deeper inventory the Prime would be headed much higher.

Unfortunately, that didn’t happen, and a ‘doubling’ of stock (to around 2,000 units), only resulted in 1,899 sales in September. An additional 50% gain in inventory for October (up to ~3,000) actually resulted in a lower number – 1,626 sales.

For November, inventory levels stayed fairly strong, averaging slightly more than October, which translated into better sales, but still a relatively disappointing 1,834 deliveries, given the higher expectations for the year’s end.

For December, the Prime saw a record sales month, with 2,420 sold. This put the 2017 total at 20,936, landing Toyota’s plug-in the fourth place spot overall for the year as a whole.

Toyota delivered 1,496 Primes for the month of January, up 5.1% from last January’s figures. February Toyota Prius Prime numbers were super-impressive, with 2,050 sold. This is up a whopping 50.5% from last year’s monthly figures!

Toyota sold 2,922 Prime plug-ins this March, up again from last year’s numbers by an impressive 74.1%.It’s also up significantly from last month’s figures, and we’re pretty confident that the Prime will continue to rein No. 2 to the Tesla Model 3.

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The Toyota Prius Prime not only features its own unique look, but also 25 miles of all-electric range.

How has the Toyota found a selling range of ~2,000 units a month? The plug-in Toyota is priced right – from $27,950, which after the $4,500 federal credit gives the Prime a selling price of $23,450. This price-point comes in at over $1,000 cheaper than the base hybrid Prius, which should translate into long-term sales success if the EV can remain well stocked.

BMW i3

BMW i3: 

The BMW i3 entered the U.S. market with a bang in 2014, but it’s too bad that the initial fireworks display of sales back then was the peak – we just didn’t know it at the time.

For 2017, BMW i3 sales were a mixed bag.

Sales got off to a rough start, with just 182 moved in January, and 318 in February. The tune changed drastically in March (which given the i3’s track record is not all that surprising) with 703 sales made, a 118% gain over March of 2016. However, for several months after March, sales hovered around 500-600 units, until October when almost 700 were yet again moved.

For November…trashbags, as the company recalled all of its i3 vehicles due to a safety issue (for people who chose to NOT wear their seat belts if you can believe that) and put a ‘stop sale’ on the model for a time.  Just 283 i3 vehicles were sold during a month that is historically one of the best in terms of EV sales.

Quite frankly (and notwithstanding this recall), the i3 as it stands today is likely too expensive for plug-in vehicle buyers. So, if BMW wants to sell the EV in volumes like it did in the past, it’s going to have to sharpen its pencil considerably.

In late August, BMW proved it still really didn’t understand the issue behind lackluster sales or the i3 itself, by releasing a new, slightly sportier trim level – the i3s (full details here). The car gets some new styling details, some wider tires and some extra performance (+10 kW), but what the public really wants is a longer range option and a price cut (the new i3s is ~10% more expensive in most markets).

Now, 2018 models are being delivered, and it was also reported that a larger battery (long-range) model is set to arrive in late 2018.

December i3 sales accelerated from November’s totals considerably. The German luxury automaker delivered more than double the previous month’s total, at 672 to close out 2017 with 6,726 sold.

For January, BMW delivered 382 i3s. This is exactly the same number as last January. February brought a 96% bump in i3 sales from the same month last year, with 623 sold.

It looks like the i3 is going to start gaining interest once again. We’ve now seen two consecutive months of excellent sales growth. BMW sold an impressive 992 copies in March, which is the best showing for the car since August of 2016. This is up 41.1% from last year’s 703, and a big bump from last month’s 623.

2014 Tesla Model S

Tesla Model S: 

Tesla doesn’t give out exact monthly sales (apparently because the public can’t handle the concept of regional allocations and delivery lead times). For this reason, we never know for sure what the monthly numbers total up to until Tesla’s quarterly (or annual) updates add more clarity. However, we do our best to keep our finger on the pulse of what’s happening.

To come to an estimated monthly number, we don’t simply take the quarterly estimate given by Tesla and divide it by 3 and hope it all works out. This is surely not how it works in the real world. We simply report from the data we accumulate ourselves, including first-hand accounts available from the factory and from the community itself, and the number is what it is (see below).

Revisions/disclaimer to the accuracy of prior estimates: The 2016 Model S chart has been adjusted (via U.S. Q3 data leaked directly from Tesla) by 469 units in Q3, and 525 units in Q4. The 2015 chart was adjusted (one time) by 498 units to compensate for confirmed full-year numbers. The 2014 sales chart was adjusted (one time – again after the end of the full year of estimates) 611 units to compensate for full-year numbers. While past success is no guarantee of future results, InsideEVs is quite proud of its sales tracking for the Model S over the years.

That being said, we only estimate this number because Tesla does not report it, and to not put a number on Model S sales would be to paint an even more inaccurate overall picture of EV sales. Despite our fairly accurate track record, we’re not analysts or portfolio managers and we don’t own any positions in TSLA the company.

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While Tesla continues to conform to a familiar quarterly pattern of prioritizing international production early in the quarter before transitioning to domestic output, there has been somewhat of a change/reshuffling of priorities we have seen this time around.

The name of that priority is Model 3.

As we mentioned in 2017, it appeared Tesla knew fairly early that volume production would not be close to guidance by the end of Q3, and quickly refocused in an attempt to make that a reality by the end of Q4 (investors need to be kept happy we suppose).

The end result is that production energies and skilled labor normally assigned to Tesla’s original EVs are being diverted from the Model S and X to getting the Model 3 back on course. Tesla seems to be more focused on net sales than setting a specific S and X target, but international deliveries also play a role. All-in-all, we may see Model S and X sales flat or even lower over the course of 2018.

Additionally, the automaker just pushed back Model S and X delivery timelines by several months. It was said that this is due to a spike in orders for the vehicles, likely due to the attention Tesla is getting from the Model 3, and also because many people are having to wait so long for their Model 3 that they’ve opted for an S or X instead.

With all of this considered, it’s becoming increasingly clear Tesla is picking and choosing how it will skillfully hit its delivery targets. This means that sales figures for the Model S for December and January were down from last year’s numbers.

We estimated January Model S sales at 800. February’s estimate came in a bit higher, at 1,125, although this is still a notable drop from last year’s 1,750.

March sales mirrored 2017 as expected, at 3,375, to round out the quarter fairly close to targets.

Tesla Model X

Tesla Model X: 

Like the Model S, Tesla does not report Model X sales, so we do our best to estimate monthly results for North America using all the data at our disposal (For more info on that, check out our disclaimer for the Model S)

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Historical accuracy/Sales Update (Oct 11th):

Tesla’s leaked U.S. sales data for Q3 2016 put U.S. deliveries at 5,428. Our own Q3 estimate was 5,800 for North America, which includes Canada (which ended Q3 with 389 registrations for the quarter), meaning 5,787 were actually sold. Though we don’t attest to being experts, we were only off by 13 units in Q3.

Previously in Q2 2016, Tesla reported 4,625 Model X deliveries. Our estimated scorecard got within about ~55 units of the actual number (accounting for just a handful of international Model X deliveries). In Q1 we were within ~200 units.

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Since we don’t want to bore you by explaining the same thing twice, have a look at the Tesla Model S recap (above) and then come back here.

All done? Good … welcome back.

Like the Model S, Model X production has been sacrificed as Tesla attempts to prove itself more capable of building the Model 3. Tesla directed to some 10% less production of the Model S & X in Q4 of 2017. Keep in mind, however, that all cars and regions are not created equal.

Aside from lower sales volume due to the Model 3, for the months of December and January, Model X sales seemed to be business as usual (despite the long-winded explanation above). In December, we estimated that Tesla moved 3,330 electric SUVs compared to the 3,875 sold in the same month of 2016. We estimated January 2018 Model X sales at 700, down a touch from last year’s 750.

Our estimates for February put Model X deliveries at 875 (to reconcile the quarter, we’ve bumped this number up to 975) , up a fair amount from January’s estimates, as well as February 2017 numbers (of course, last February, Model X production was somewhat limited, as our estimates show the automaker delivered 800 during that month).

For March, sales were consistent with 2017, at 2,825, to finish the quarter fairly close to targets.

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3: 

Just ~16 months after orders opened, and ~10 years since it was first announced (then known as the “Bluestar”), the first Model 3s were delivered on July 28, 2017! One can check out the full delivery ceremony and all the newly released specs (220-310 miles range, 0-60 mph in 5.1-5.6 seconds) on our full recap here.

As with Model S & X sales, Tesla is not planning to release monthly Model 3 sales in the U.S. at this point in time. Until then, we’ll do our best to estimate monthly results for North America using all the data at our disposal (For more info on that, check out our Model S disclaimer).

Historical accuracy/Sales Update (Nov 1st):  Q3 2017 sales of the Model 3 were adjusted up 2 units.

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Thankfully, in the early days (Q3 2017), estimating Model 3 sales in the U.S. was a pretty easy task, as the complete delivery volume for July took place live at the July 28th delivery event in Fremont, California. The first 30 cars were delivered to Tesla employees/stakeholders in the U.S., and one could almost count the individual cars as they left Tesla’s Fremont factory in August.

For September, we had Tesla’s quarterly disclosure that put deliveries at 222 cumulatively for the quarter, meaning about 117 were delivered.  Truthfully, the monthly numbers were meaningless in Q3. Instead, all eyes were on production. While the company guided to some 1,630+ to be produced, just 260 were built.

Of course, much chatter arose as to why. Tesla generically blamed “production bottlenecks.”  The company, looking to re-assure, said at the time:

“We understand what needs to be fixed and we are confident of addressing the manufacturing bottleneck issues in the near-term.”

From our perspective, Tesla realized fairly early in July that the September goals would not be met. Following the future ‘S-Curve’ goal into year’s end was going to be problematic. It appears from that moment on, rather than working on “near-term” production and deliveries, Tesla has been working more proactively with the main goal of simply being able to show volume production by year’s end – something originally targeted for the end of September.

While this thought process was never officially confirmed by the company, a quasi-confirmation came with the admission that Model S and X production would be off 10% in Q4 2017. Additionally, we are now seeing the effects of manpower being transferred into transitioning the Model 3 production from “burst” output (or start and stop if you will) to a more consistent, ordered structure.

While it’s only speculation on our part (as it has been for several months while watching the happenings around the car), we believed Tesla was desperate to provide confirmation of a “decent” sustained production level for the Model 3 by the close of the year … and we were right.

To that end, progress to a certain degree was definitely made in November, as more cars than ever did actually find employee driveways (and orders also opened to the public mid-month … well at least to the first batch of locals anyway). Though Tesla only delivered an estimated 345 Model 3s in November, this number was a notable jump from prior months.

Tesla publicly reported delivering 1,060 Model 3s in December, for a grand total of 1,772 on for 2017. Additionally, Tesla dialed down the target of 5K a week, to 2.5K now, and set the 5K production level back to June (essentially a six-month delay at this point).

Adding up all Tesla vehicles delivered in the U.S. in 2017 brought us to an estimated 50,147. Global deliveries passed the 100K mark for the year as a whole (~103,000), making 2017 Tesla’s best year yet, despite Model 3 shortfalls.

While Model S and X sales were both down a handful for January, based on our estimations, Model 3 sales were up again compared to last month’s numbers (one would sure hope so!) However, they’re not up as high as projected or expected.

We estimated January Model 3 sales at 1,875. Basically, we took the 860 vehicles in transit in December, plus the ~500 vehicles produced in each of the first two weeks of January (and those 15 extra vehicles from December that Tesla assured were ready to go but not yet scheduled for delivery), and projected that the automaker was able to successfully deliver these cars prior to the close of the month. This makes sense since the Tesla was still (and still is) looking at three to six weeks for the entire process to unfold.

For February, we must assume that most of the remainder of the Model 3s manufactured in January made their way into owners’ driveways. Added to this, we gather that some early February production was delivered prior to the 28th of the month. We should also point out that an anonymous source with close ties to Model 3 production made us aware that the line has been down for as much as a week at a time over the course of the last month or so due to timing issues with the robots. This was later verified by the automaker. Our February Model 3 delivery estimate was 2,485.

As expected, Tesla has dialed up Model 3 production for March considerably, and according to the automaker’s Q1 sales report, future prospects are looking up. You can read the whole report by clicking here.

Tesla has delivered a grand total of 8,180 Model 3 sedans for the quarter, which puts March sales at an impressive 3,820.

Chrysler Pacific Hybrid (plug-in)

Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid: 

Editor’s note:  FCA does not split out sales data for the plug-in Pacifica, so we try our best to estimate that number from month-to-month until hard/verifiable data is gleaned.

The much-anticipated plug-in extended range passenger van arrived in January of 2017, albeit in stealth, stuttered, and very limited in fashion.

Due to some odd quirks with production timing and plant scheduling, we had an on/off/on/off/quasi-on start for the Pacifica Hybrid as it relates to deliveries. Then there was QC holds, then launch delays.

Finally, the Pacifica Hybrid officially arrived on “Earth Day” April 22, 2017, and customers enjoyed a good three to four weeks of arriving inventory … until the wheels fell off (not literally).

By June 10, 2017, a nationwide recall was announced, and all 1,677 Pacificas sold in the U.S. and Canada had to head back to Chrysler to get a faulty diode replaced that could cause loss of power when in operation. We won’t get into all the details from there (check out our June sales report for more info).

Thankfully, by September, the kinks appeared to have been worked out just in time to see its Windsor, Ontario assembly plant go down for the entire month of October for pre-scheduled updating of the facility to comply with U.S. regulatory/safety tooling on the Grand Caravan.

Nonetheless, customer orders and dealer stock are once again flowing and the 2018 model has arrived. With January being a low-volume month, we put Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid sales estimates at 375. For February, we estimated Chrysler delivered 450 Pacifica Hybrids.

Our March estimate sees 480 Chrysler Pacifica Hybrids delivered.

Ford Fusion Energi

Ford Fusion Energi: NO DATA TO REPORT YET – THIS REPORT IS BEING FILED IN REAL-TIME AND WILL BE UPDATED SOON

The refreshed 2017 Ford Fusion Energi (details) was a fairly big hit in 2016, showing marked improvements throughout the year.

Heading into 2017, the Fusion Energi crossed back into “four-digit land” in March, as 1,002 Energis were moved … joining a club of just five others at that level. The month of May showed a repeat of such numbers, but sales have stayed in the 700s ever since.

Looking at the inventory in the past, it was easy to see why (and how) so many of the new Fusion plug-ins have been sold. The Fusion Energi often won the crown for the “most stocked” EV in the U.S., until Chevy got crazy with the Volt and Bolt EV.

With that said, Ford had been struggling to keep production on pace with demand (or rather managing inventory lower). After having almost 3,000 in stock in mid-June 2017, that number fell below 2,000 units by the start of September, as the industry-wide summer shutdown/changeover to MY 2018 was underway. This inventory level flatlined through the end of 2017, for 9,632 deliveries.

Fusion Energi sales were in January, at 640. Deliveries climbed in February to 794, very close to last year’s 837.

2018 BMW 530e

BMW 530e: NO DATA TO REPORT YET – THIS REPORT IS BEING FILED IN REAL-TIME AND WILL BE UPDATED SOON

Welcome to the “big time” BMW 5 Series! By “big time” we mean selling more than 500 copies and getting an individual recap on our sales scorecard.

The plug-in hybrid’s $52,400 starting price point makes it the cheapest of the 5 Series to own, and thus a strong seller. After crossing 500 sales in both September and October, an amazing 872 were moved in November, followed by 706 in December – shooting the plug-in BMW up our sales chart.

For January, deliveries slide down significantly to 224. February starts to move back up, with 413 deliveries.

x5 xDrive40e

BMW X5 xDrive40e: NO DATA TO REPORT YET – THIS REPORT IS BEING FILED IN REAL-TIME AND WILL BE UPDATED SOON

The BMW X5 plug-in had an unexpectedly strong debut in the U.S. in 2016, which only got stronger over the year.

In fact, the electrified BMW SUV had seen sales as high as 876 units in 2016 (August 2016).

Then 2017 happened, and sales disappointed. During the first 10 months, numbers ranged from the 260s to the 480s.

With just 329 sales in October, and 333 in September, we confidently predicted the X5 plug-in would be leaving our recap list in 2018 … then November happened. The month brought an all-time best 929 deliveries, which made the BMW the sixth best selling plug-in for the November! In December, sales were down, but still strong at 832, pushing the just out of the top ten for the year as a whole.

While inventory is still low, we’re happy to be able to report that the 2018s are here in volume. Hopefully, enough plug-in SUVs will eventually arrive that BMW can once again make a push to achieve the four-digit mark!

BMW X5 plug-in sales plummeted in January to 261. For February, we saw a bump back up to 596, keeping the X5 safe in our recaps.

Honda Clarity PHEV

Honda Clarity PHEV: 

The Honda Clarity PHEV just arrived in November of 2017. Only 5 copies were sold that first month, followed by an incredible 898 in December. At that point, we were going to add the new plug-in to our recaps, but we decided to give it a few months to settle in.

January deliveries fell to 594, however, that’s still outstanding for a new addition to the segment. February brought a nice surge back up to 881 sold, pushing the Clarity PHEV within reach of the best-selling vehicles in the segment.

Now, the Clarity PHEV finds a new home in our recaps, and it’s obvious it earned it well. The addition of the Clarity was much-needed, as it comes at a time that we have recently eliminated the Volkswagen e-Golf, Audi A3 Sportback e-tron, Ford C-Max Energi, and Fiat 500e due to not meeting the sales threshold.

The Clarity PHEV starts at $33,400 before rebates. It’s powered by 1.5-liter four-cylinder engine and two electric motors, with a total system output of 212 horsepower and 232 pound-feet of torque. The Clarity boasts a 47-mile EPA all-electric driving range, making it the closest PHEV all-electric range competitor to the Chevy Volt. Charging takes 2.5 hours with 240-volt power or about 12 hours on a 120-volt household outlet.

Honda has reported a total of 1,061 Clarity PHEVs sold in March.