April 2018 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card

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This April gives ultimate confidence that 2018 plug-in sales are on the rise toward a massive year.

April aims to mark the 31st month of consecutive year-over-year monthly sales gains* for plug-in vehicles. We expect it to do so without fail. In fact, it should be an easy feat based on what we’ve seen over the past few months.

January 2018 EV sales had us a little worried. The rise was not as expected, but it turns out it was not indicative of what was ahead. February came and we had to wait forever to get the final numbers, but, in the end, it was worth the wait. The month exceeded our forecast significantly. Then, March blew the roof off for plug-in sales. It ended up being the best month of all time for the segment and the strongest quarter to date.

It seems like just yesterday we were reporting March EV sales. April came and went with a vengeance, so here we are again. We considered only running sales articles on a quarterly basis now that GM has decided to change its reporting schedule (and Tesla has been following this method all along). But, as the segment grows, there is an increasing number of other major players.

In the event that other automakers change to quarterly reporting, we may have to reconsider. For now, you can still count on your monthly dose of InsideEVs sales reporting.

For April, we anticipate at least 18,500 plug-in cars sold. However, if the odds are in our favor, it wouldn’t be surprising to approach the 20,000-mark. Even at 18,500 deliveries, this would be a significant jump from April 2017’s 13,367. If sales can creep up even a touch higher, our report will show this April as the 5th best-selling month of all time for U.S. EVs sales. While pushing into the 4th place spot is highly unlikely, anything is possible.

Top Months for U.S. EV Sales to Date (estimated):

1. March 2018 – 26,373
2. December 2017 – 26,107
3. December 2016 – 24,785
4. September 2017 – 21,242
5. March 2017 – 18,542

It’s important to note that April had one less day than March and potentially four less selling days. This may or may not make a notable impact, but, nonetheless, it’s a valid point to consider.

Let’s take a look at what we know so far this month and some related details.

Nissan finally began to move a notable number of copies of its all-new 2018 LEAF in February, at 895. However, we were confident that March would be the turning point … and it was (Nissan moved an impressive 1,500). We anticipate that number to continue into the second quarter, with the potential to soar. The automaker delivered 1,171 LEAFs in the U.S. for the month of April.

While the Tesla Model 3 continues to suffer production issues, March was an incredible month for Tesla’s hugely popular new small sedan. In fact, in regards to EVs, it was the best month of all time for any automaker in the U.S. This was true not only for the Model 3, but also for Tesla as a whole.

Tesla sold 3,820 Model 3s in March, for a total of over 8,000 in Q1. To top it off, the Silicon Valley automaker delivered an estimated 10,000 vehicles in March in the U.S. alone, over 6,000 of which were the company’s Model S and Model X. To top it off, Tesla took the lead for global EV sales for March and the quarter.

For April, we estimate Model 3 sales at 3,875. This is essentially flat from the previous month, but there was one less working day, potentially four less selling days (although Tesla doesn’t play by the same rules as legacy automakers), production output was about the same, and Model 3 production saw a brief shutdown. Based on our estimations, Model S and X sales are up a touch from last year, though pretty consistent, at 1,250 and 1,025, respectively.

GM boldly decided at the end of the first quarter that it will switch away from monthly sales reporting. Instead, the automaker will follow Tesla’s lead and only release numbers at the close of each quarter. So, it will be July before we have a solid handle on Chevrolet Bolt and Chevrolet Volt deliveries. Between now and then, we’ll make an attempt to estimate sales to keep our chart complete. Keep in mind, when GM shares quarterly sales in July, we’ll watch and update our official numbers.

With that being said, we see Bolt deliveries at 1,275 for last month, as well as a welcome surprise from the Volt, as sales are at an estimated 1,325. These numbers put the Bolt right on target with expectations, at an almost flat number compared to last April. As we anticipated, Volt deliveries are down year-over-year, however, GM has upped production and inventory of its aging plug-in while beginning to reduce Bolt allocations. In late March, the automaker also resumed Bolt deliveries in South Korea, ahead of schedule.

The Toyota Prius Prime, Honda Clarity PHEV, and BMW i3 are also worthy of mention. Of course, the Prime has maintained second place on our sales chart by a pretty wide margin thus far this year. The Clarity PHEV secured an almost miraculous December, which was its first full month of sales. It succeeded again in February, edging it closer to the top competitors in the segment, but March is when it really started to shine, with over 1,000 deliveries. Though i3 sales were weak throughout 2017 and opened this year the same, March saw a surge.

Prime sales are in and show continued success, claiming the second spot once again on our chart thus far, only exceeded by the Tesla Model 3. Toyota sold 2,626 copies last month. We can only hope that Honda keeps inventory up for the newly popular Clarity PHEV, so that sales can continue to climb. BMW i3 sales are just about flat from last April, at 503.

While 2017 plug-in sales fell just shy of the 200,000 mark, it was still an extremely impressive year as a whole. Hitting that mark for 2018 should happen well before the end of the year. However, there are several variables involved in determining where we might be by the end of this year. Will we see 300,000?