Electric Truck Sales To Surge In Next Decade Says Navigant Research

A report from Navigant Research claims that electric truck sales will grow from roughly 31,000 worldwide in 2016 to more than 332,000 by 2026. The research firm believes the growth will be driven by economics — trucks with hybrid, plug-in hybrid, or electric powertrains will simply cost less to purchase and operate over their useful lifetime than diesel powered trucks. The calculus in favor such vehicles will only improve over time as battery prices fall and charging infrastructure increases.

Diesel trucks today are becoming more expensive as manufacturers add costly pollution control systems such as exhaust after treatment and advanced fuel injection systems to satisfy stricter emissions regulations. The higher the price of new diesel trucks, the more competitive alternatives like hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric trucks become. In addition, am electric truck typically has significantly lower fuel and maintenance costs. A professional fleet manager has to look at total cost when choosing which truck to buy. Return on investment is one key metric that can skew the decision in favor of a vehicle with alternative power.

In an odd twist of fate, the Volkswagen diesel emissions cheating scandal has had a knock on effect on how the public looks at all diesel vehicles. The illusion of  “clean diesel technology” has now been shattered, thanks to VW. Four of the world’s largest cities have pledged to ban diesel powered vehicles from their streets completely by 2025. It is unlikely they would have taken such agressive action had the VW scandal not raised public awareness of the environmental hazards of diesel engines.

Also, general awareness of global climate change is higher now than ever before, thanks to the Paris climate accords agreed to by all the world’s nations last December. More and more corporations are adopting stricter environmental guidelines for their businesses both out of a desire to increase their “green” credentials with customers and a because of a recognition that climate change is not a hoax created by the Chinese and must be dealt with seriously.

An electric truck may be a hybrid — a vehicle that utilizes an onboard fossil fuel engine to recharge their batteries. The engine can vary from the tiny 648 cc two cylinder engine used by Workhorse to the natural gas powered turbine developed by Wrightspeed that burns so cleanly it meets California’s strict emissions standards without a catalytic converter. It can also include a conventional gasoline or diesel engine that keeps batteries charged during the work day. Plug-in hybrids simply allow the trucks to be recharged when not in use, which means the onboard range extender engine needs to run less frequently.

Pure battery electric vehicles face obstacles such as high initial costs and relatively short range. But they may prove ideal for the “last mile” scenario that gets consumer goods from suburban warehouses to stores and customers in cities. Deutsche Post has begun manufacturing just such a vehicle which it designed in house. It will be perfect for moving consumer goods into the four cities that plan to ban diesel vehicles completely.

The hardest challenge for an electric truck is moving freight long distances. Diesel engines still excel compared to other power sources in the world’s fleet of tractor trailers. But changes are happening there, too. Nikola Motors has unveiled a prototype tractor with battery power and a hydrogen fuel cell range extender. Tesla Motors has hinted it may be working on an electric truck of its own, although no details have been released.

One thing seems certain. The days when the diesel engine was king of the freight hauling world appear to be numbered. That’s good news for the environment.

Source: Hybrid Cars

Navigant: almost 39,300 natural gas refueling stations worldwide by 2026

The total number of natural gas refueling stations globally will reach almost 39,300 locations by 2026, according to a new report from Navigant Research.

Since late 2014, the production of crude oil has outpaced demand, triggering a sustained collapse in world oil prices, which have remained mostly below $50 per barrel. As a result, these low prices have put pressure on the market for natural gas vehicles (NGVs) and the corresponding refueling infrastructure.

Despite the decline in oil prices, stricter emissions and fuel economy regulations mean that NG remains a very attractive alternative to gasoline and diesel in many regions and vehicle applications where electrification is not a practical alternative. While slowing growth in China is having an impact on vehicle sales, the number of NG refueling stations globally is still projected to swell at a 4.4% compound annual growth rate during the next decade.

—Sam Abuelsamid, senior research analyst with Navigant Research

Several market drivers continue to make natural gas an appealing proposition in the next decade, especially for larger trucks and buses, where electrification is not as practical, and natural gas operation can reduce the costs associated with diesel emissions after-treatment.

According to the report, tightening emissions regulations, particularly for diesel engines, are also expected to push fleets toward natural gas conversions, with refueling infrastructure to follow.

Commercial EV Sales Could Exceed 800,000 By 2023

Sales of electric cars have never been higher, at least among passenger car sales. Commercial vehicle buyers have been much slower to join the EV hype train though, citing high costs and limited range as the main barrier. Despite this, Navigant Research believes that by 2023 commercial plug-in hybrid and EV sales could exceed 800,000 total sales, as fleet managers and automakers respond to government mandates.

According to Navigant, advances in battery technology and decreases in charging time and costs will make electric vehicles more and more appealing, especially as government mandates push for higher efficiency.This will lead to a tenfold increase in sales, from less than 16,000 in 2014 to over 160,000 in the year 2023. While pure electric buses are sure to play a bigger and bigger role in mass transit, Navigant thinks plug-in hybrids might see the biggest gains.

“Electric hybrid vehicles are now being used in commercial applications where the improved technology offers major benefits for specific drive cycles that involve city driving in stop-start traffic,” says the Navigant report. “Plug-in vehicles are being developed for niche applications that can use onboard electrical energy to replace idling diesel engines or provide temporary power to buildings or tools at remote sites. Low-emissions zones in cities are being introduced that will result in greater demand for vehicles that can be driven in electric-only mode.”

The report seems to focus mostly on the impact of plug-in hybrids, which can drive a limited distance on just electricity. While plug-in hybrid commercial vehicles certainly make a lot of sense, the next-generation of EVs should have enough range to make daily urban deliveries with overnight charging. The Nissan e-NV200 only has 80 miles of range right now, but if the next-gen LEAF can double that driving range per charge, Nissan’s small delivery van ought to benefit too.

There are still challenges to overcome, and not just of the technological kind. The people in charge of buying fleets of vehicles have to be convinced of their economic benefits before taking the plunge, and the first go-around at commercial plug-ins didn’t go too hot. Companies like Smith Electric were able to find buyers to keep the dream alive, but other entrants into the plug-in vehicle market have fallen by the wayside as their ideas didn’t pan out. It may take more enticing by governments like France to get more commercial EVs on the road.

Things definitely seem different the second time around, and if gas prices spike again, that could be all it takes to convince fleet managers to take the plug-in plunge.

EV battery costs declining faster than expected

The cost to make lithium-ion battery packs used for plug-in vehicles dropped by about 14 percent a year between 2007 and 2014, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change. That means the average cost per kilowatt hour fell from about $1,000 to $410 during that time period. And "market-leading" plug-in vehicle makers have shaved that cost further to $300 per kilowatt hour.

In late 2013, Navigant Research forecast that li-on battery costs would fall to about $300 per kilowatt hour by this year (nice work!) and that those costs could fall to $180 per kilowatt hour by the end of the decade. That means that electric vehicles may be selling for just a $2,000 premium compared to a similar gas-powered car by 2020. That premium could shrink further because automakers charged with meeting stringent federal fuel economy standards will be investing more in fuel-efficiency technology, potentially boosting the cost to make conventional vehicles as plug-in vehicles costs fall because of battery-price declines. Take a look at the rather scientific Nature Climate Change report summary here.

Chevrolet makes Stop/Start standard on base 4-cylinder in 2015 Impala; 5% improvement in city fuel economy

Stop/start technology will be standard on the 2015 Impala base 2.5-liter ECOTEC engine, an addition that improves the vehicle’s city fuel economy by nearly 5%, or one mile per gallon. The Impala comes standard with a four-cylinder engine, which currently accounts for more than 30% of Impala retail sales.

For the 2015 model year, the Impala will be available with two powertrains, a standard 2.5L engine with stop/start, and a premium 3.6L six-cylinder engine. The Impala with the 3.6L V-6 engine will not include stop/start technology.

Stop/start shuts down the engine in certain driving conditions to reduce fuel consumption. The technology is becoming more prevalent worldwide. A recent report from Navigant Research predicted worldwide sales of vehicles with stop/start technology (SSVs) will grow from 8.8 million in 2013 to 55.4 million in 2022.

The 2.5L Impala with stop/start yields an EPA-estimated fuel economy of 22 mpg city (10.7 l/100 km), 31 mpg (7.6 l/100 km) for the highway and 25 mpg (9.4 l/100 km) combined.

The Impala becomes the second vehicle in Chevrolet’s US. lineup to feature stop/start technology, following the segment-first standard inclusion in the 2014 Malibu introduced late last year. The technology helps improve the Malibu’s city fuel economy by 14%.

Chevrolet engineers developed the stop/start in the Impala from extensive experience with GM’s eAssist system and the accompanying algorithms that allow engines to engage and disengage subtly.

Stop/start system customer research indicates they want the engine to start up as quickly and smoothly as possible after a stop.

—Mark Meyers, Chevrolet Global Vehicle Performance manager

During the development of this technology, a team of software engineers was created. The Center for Excellence focuses on advancing stop/start technology and making its operation seamless to the customer.

A big challenge for the team was overcoming “change-of-mind events,” instances in which the driver begins to stop, but then quickly accelerates. The algorithms adapt the system so the starter can fire even if the engine did not fully shut off.

The software also prevents the system from engaging if the car does not reach 6 mph (10 km/h) since its last start—a feature for stop-and-go-driving conditions. The system also considers cabin temperature, humidity, battery charge and other factors when deciding if the engine should come to a stop.

Hardware revisions also have been made. The noise and vibration team worked closely with drivetrain engineers to revise motor mounts to provide the greatest isolation possible from the cabin. Additionally, the team included a larger heavy-duty starter motor to assist with the additional ignition cycles.

The 2015 Impala goes on sale this summer with a suggested starting price of $27,735 for the 4-cylinder LS model, and $30,960 for the 6-cylinder LT model. These include an $825 destination charge, but exclude tax, title, license and dealer fees.

Navigant: US to remain largest national plug-in vehicle market over next 10 years; Tokyo to take metro market lead spot from LA

Navigant Research forecasts that the United States will remain the largest national market for light-duty plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) during the next 10 years, with LD PEV sales exceeding 514,000 in 2023. Currently, North America is the strongest market for light duty PEVs with nearly 100,000 sold in 2013, according to the market research firm. Japan is a distant second, with just under 30,000 sales, followed by the Netherlands (more than 23,000) and China (more than 17,000).

Navigant Research forecasts that the global LD PEV market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.6% while the global market for LD vehicles will grow at a CAGR of only 2.6% during that period. Navigant Research estimates the US PEV market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.3% between 2014 and 2023. Canada, which is about 1 year behind the United States in terms of vehicle availability, is expected to have a CAGR of 25.4%, reaching more than 66,000 vehicles in 2023.

Navigant expects that Los Angeles, Tokyo, and Paris will be the top cities in all regions examined over the forecast period. The Los Angeles metropolitan area is currently the largest PEV market by unit, with more than 15,000 PEV sales expected in 2014. However, of the three cities, Navigant expects it to be the slowest growing, with a CAGR of 10.4% for the 2014-2023 timeframe.

Navigant forecasts Paris to lead Europe throughout the report period, with sales approaching 25,000 in 2023. In comparison, Oslo, Norway, the least populous of the European metropolitan areas examined in the report, is expected to have sales of around 13,500 in 2023. The Greater Tokyo area, with a population of over 35 million, is the largest metropolitan area examined in this report. While currently lagging behind Los Angeles, the city is forecast to become the largest PEV market in 2020, with over 35,000 sales in that year.

Navigant Research forecasts that the PEV parc in Los Angeles will grow from more than 36,000 in 2014 to more than 250,000 by 2023. Tokyo, starting from around 19,500 in 2014, is expected to grow to surpass Los Angeles in 2023, with a PEV parc of around 260,000, representing more than 2.3% of the light-duty vehicle on the road in Tokyo.

Although Paris is estimated to have just over half the amount of PEVs in use that Tokyo and Los Angeles have throughout the forecast period, PEVs are expected to represent 2.5% of the city’s fleet. This figure is relatively low compared to the other European cities of Amsterdam and Oslo. Navigant Research estimates PEVs will account for 7.7% and 10.7% of these cities’ fleets, respectively.

While PEVs currently present a marginal increase in load for utilities, PEV concentration in metropolitan areas will push utilities serving these areas to develop strategies for PEV load mitigation. Utilities in the United States have led the globe in terms of developing demand-side management programs for residential sectors, according to Navigant. Time-of-use (TOU) rates specific to PEVs and aggregation of PEVs for demand response (DR) programs will develop alongside high penetrations of PEVs in select US urban and metropolitan utility service areas.

The new forecast report updates Navigant’s PEV forecasts originally developed for the 2013 edition of Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts. Past editions of the report focused on the North American market with detailed geographic breakdowns of PEV sales by US state, metropolitan statistical area (MSA), Canadian province, Canadian city, and selected US utility service area. The new report has been expanded to include forecasts on five select PEV markets in both Europe (London, United Kingdom; Paris, France; Berlin, Germany; Amsterdam, Netherlands; and Oslo, Norway) and Asia Pacific (Tokyo, Japan; Seoul, South Korea; Sydney, Australia; Hong Kong; and Singapore).

The forecast model for each region has been updated using actual sales data from 2013 and considers the difference between fuel costs for conventional vehicles and PEVs, as they vary by region. Additionally, Navigant Research has incorporated forecasts on the number of vehicles that will be in use (vehicle parc) throughout the 2014-2023 forecast period.

To generate these forecasts, Navigant Research used numerous variables to evaluate PEV demand by region, broadly classifying the factors into four categories: population and demographics; PEV attitudes in the US; vehicle and infrastructure availability; and PEV economics.