Lux: carbon fiber to go mainstream in automobiles by 2025

Driven by a faster-than-expected pace of technology development, carbon-fiber reinforced plastics (CFRPs) will be poised to gain widespread adoption for automotive lightweighting by 2025, according to a new report from Lux Research, “Scaling Up Carbon Fiber: Roadmap to Automotive Adoption.”

Advances already underway in fiber, resin and composite part production will lead to a $6 billion market for automotive CFRPs in 2020, more than double Lux’s earlier projection. Even this figure is dwarfed by the full potential for CFRPs in automotive if they can become affordable enough for use in mainstream vehicles, Lux posits.

Current trends strongly indicate significant mainstream automotive adoption of CFRPs in the mid-2020s, and companies throughout the value chain must position themselves to take advantage of the coming shifts. However, long-term megatrends towards urbanization, connectivity and automation suggest that there could be a limited time window beyond that for penetrating the automotive space.

CFRP developers will have to continue the pace of innovation to overcome the high cost that has so far limited the material to less price-sensitive markets like aerospace and sporting goods.

—Anthony Vicari, Lux Research Associate and the lead author of the report

Lux Research analysts reviewed the technology development in CFRPs, and evaluated its economics to consider its impact on the automotive sector. Among their findings:

• Growing partnerships hasten development. The number of direct partnerships between carmakers or Tier-1 automotive suppliers and carbon fiber players has nearly doubled to 11 since 2012. Toray, with partnerships with Plasan Carbon Composites and Magna, has formed the most new relationships and is a major hub.
• Patent uptick suggests mid-2020 adoption. Using a predictive tool, Lux Research identified a lag of about 18 years between uptick of patent activity and attainment of mainstream commercial adoption milestones. With another major upturn in CFRP patent activity occurring in 2007, large-scale mainstream automotive use is likely by the mid-2020s.
• Other manufacturing costs need to be cut. Carbon fiber itself, at $28/kg for standard modulus fiber, represents just 22% of the cost of a final CFRP part. Additional advances are needed to reduce capital, labor, energy, resin and processing costs, which together make up the remaining 78%.

Lux: charging stations for electric vehicles will be $1.2B market in 2020

With government policy and investment driving automotive companies toward plug-in vehicles, the technology for delivering electricity to these vehicles will rise to a $1.2 billion market in 2020, according to a Lux Research report.

Lux Research developed a forecast using vehicle sales to project the global electric-vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) market. Overall, despite slow adoption of plug-in vehicles, the charging station market will grow in unit sales from around 120,000 in 2012 to 1.3 million units in 2020, rising from $140 million in 2012 to $1.15 billion in 2020, a CAGR of 30%.

Lux Research analysts studied a web of partnerships in the EVSE market, besides building a forecast for its growth. Among their findings:

• Europe is the leader. Europe will lead the global market with 2020 annual sales of 480,000 units. China forges ahead after a slow start, growing to 277,000 annual unit sales of charging stations by 2020.
• China consumes the most energy. In 2020, plug-in vehicles in China will consume 1.9 TWh of electricity, or 23% of all energy consumed by plug-ins, the largest by any individual country, translating into $155 million in revenue for Chinese utilities.
• Web of partnerships is key. Auto OEMs such as Ford, Daimler, GM, BMW, and Nissan form the core of charging infrastructure partnerships, with complex inter-connections with emerging companies—such as BMW’s recent investment in Coulomb Technologies—and utilities.

The report, titled “Charging Ahead: Finding Reality in the Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment Market,” is part of the Lux Research Electric Vehicle Intelligence service.

Source: Green Car Congress

Lux Research Ranks Energy Storage Suppliers for Electric Vehicles

PRESS RELEASE

The Lux Innovation Grid shows the top innovators, as looming oversupply of batteries makes forming smart partnerships essential.

The hype around electric vehicles has fueled interest in energy storage technologies, and has attracted an increasing number of competitors to an already crowded market. Soon, it will be impossible for all of these companies to survive, making strong partnerships a necessity. In its latest report, Lux Research ranks technology developers in both Li-ion batteries and supercapacitors on the Lux Innovation Grid to help determine which will make the strongest potential partners as the electric vehicle market matures.

"The electric vehicle value chain is growing so integrated that battery makers must have strong partnerships with one or more automakers"

The report, titled "Using Partnerships to Stay Afloat in the Electric Vehicle Storm," maps the current web of relationships among energy storage developers, integrators, and automakers, and analyzes supply and demand for energy storage in electric vehicles. It then ranks companies on the Lux Innovation Grid, a proprietary framework to help readers assess the relative performance of potential partners.

"The electric vehicle value chain is growing so integrated that battery makers must have strong partnerships with one or more automakers," said Kevin See, a Lux Analyst and the report's lead author. "These relationships are necessary to build credibility and drive new business, as illustrated by Li-ion battery-maker LG Chem, whose strong partnerships propelled it to the top position in our rankings."

To assess the partnership potential of energy storage developers targeting the electric vehicle market, Lux Research assigned scores for each company's technical value, business execution, and maturity. Based on these scores, analysts plotted each company's relative potential on the Lux Innovation Grid, which comprises four quadrants: Dominant, High-Potential, Long-Shot, and Undistinguished. Among the report's highlights:

LG Chem Power leads the Li-ion battery-maker pack. LG Chemical subsidiary LG Chem Power sits atop the grid's Dominant quadrant, with strong technical value, due to its high-energy lithium-manganese-spinel-based cells and strong cycle life – at costs that are among the most competitive in the market. Its multitude of supply partnerships with the likes of GM, Eaton, and Ford, however, are what justify the company's strong business execution score.
A123 and Ener1 garner more headlines than momentum. Media darlings A123 and Ener1 land well out of the Dominant quadrant of the Lux Innovation Grid. Motivated by the potential for major automotive supply deals, both were originally building significant manufacturing capacity. But despite a few minor partnerships, neither has scored a major deal that will drive significant revenue.

Among supercapacitor suppliers, Maxwell stands alone. Maxwell leads the Dominant quadrant of the Lux Innovation Grid for supercapacitors. Its high score for technical value derives from cost competitiveness and strong device performance, while its high business execution score stems from multiple partnerships – among them, supply deals for applications including hybrid buses and micro-hybrids, and more recently in starter modules for commercial diesel vehicles.

"Using Partnerships to Stay Afloat in the Electric Vehicle Storm," is part of the Lux Electric Vehicles Intelligence service. Clients subscribing to this service receive ongoing research on market and technology trends, continuous technology scouting reports and proprietary data points in the weekly Lux Research Electric Vehicles Journal, and on-demand inquiry with Lux Research analysts.

About Lux Research

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