April 2018 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card

2 HBYSTEVEN LOVEDAY137

This April gives ultimate confidence that 2018 plug-in sales are on the rise toward a massive year.

April aims to mark the 31st month of consecutive year-over-year monthly sales gains* for plug-in vehicles. We expect it to do so without fail. In fact, it should be an easy feat based on what we’ve seen over the past few months.

January 2018 EV sales had us a little worried. The rise was not as expected, but it turns out it was not indicative of what was ahead. February came and we had to wait forever to get the final numbers, but, in the end, it was worth the wait. The month exceeded our forecast significantly. Then, March blew the roof off for plug-in sales. It ended up being the best month of all time for the segment and the strongest quarter to date.

It seems like just yesterday we were reporting March EV sales. April came and went with a vengeance, so here we are again. We considered only running sales articles on a quarterly basis now that GM has decided to change its reporting schedule (and Tesla has been following this method all along). But, as the segment grows, there is an increasing number of other major players.

In the event that other automakers change to quarterly reporting, we may have to reconsider. For now, you can still count on your monthly dose of InsideEVs sales reporting.

For April, we anticipate at least 18,500 plug-in cars sold. However, if the odds are in our favor, it wouldn’t be surprising to approach the 20,000-mark. Even at 18,500 deliveries, this would be a significant jump from April 2017’s 13,367. If sales can creep up even a touch higher, our report will show this April as the 5th best-selling month of all time for U.S. EVs sales. While pushing into the 4th place spot is highly unlikely, anything is possible.

Top Months for U.S. EV Sales to Date (estimated):

1. March 2018 – 26,373
2. December 2017 – 26,107
3. December 2016 – 24,785
4. September 2017 – 21,242
5. March 2017 – 18,542

It’s important to note that April had one less day than March and potentially four less selling days. This may or may not make a notable impact, but, nonetheless, it’s a valid point to consider.

Let’s take a look at what we know so far this month and some related details.

Nissan finally began to move a notable number of copies of its all-new 2018 LEAF in February, at 895. However, we were confident that March would be the turning point … and it was (Nissan moved an impressive 1,500). We anticipate that number to continue into the second quarter, with the potential to soar. The automaker delivered 1,171 LEAFs in the U.S. for the month of April.

While the Tesla Model 3 continues to suffer production issues, March was an incredible month for Tesla’s hugely popular new small sedan. In fact, in regards to EVs, it was the best month of all time for any automaker in the U.S. This was true not only for the Model 3, but also for Tesla as a whole.

Tesla sold 3,820 Model 3s in March, for a total of over 8,000 in Q1. To top it off, the Silicon Valley automaker delivered an estimated 10,000 vehicles in March in the U.S. alone, over 6,000 of which were the company’s Model S and Model X. To top it off, Tesla took the lead for global EV sales for March and the quarter.

For April, we estimate Model 3 sales at 3,875. This is essentially flat from the previous month, but there was one less working day, potentially four less selling days (although Tesla doesn’t play by the same rules as legacy automakers), production output was about the same, and Model 3 production saw a brief shutdown. Based on our estimations, Model S and X sales are up a touch from last year, though pretty consistent, at 1,250 and 1,025, respectively.

GM boldly decided at the end of the first quarter that it will switch away from monthly sales reporting. Instead, the automaker will follow Tesla’s lead and only release numbers at the close of each quarter. So, it will be July before we have a solid handle on Chevrolet Bolt and Chevrolet Volt deliveries. Between now and then, we’ll make an attempt to estimate sales to keep our chart complete. Keep in mind, when GM shares quarterly sales in July, we’ll watch and update our official numbers.

With that being said, we see Bolt deliveries at 1,275 for last month, as well as a welcome surprise from the Volt, as sales are at an estimated 1,325. These numbers put the Bolt right on target with expectations, at an almost flat number compared to last April. As we anticipated, Volt deliveries are down year-over-year, however, GM has upped production and inventory of its aging plug-in while beginning to reduce Bolt allocations. In late March, the automaker also resumed Bolt deliveries in South Korea, ahead of schedule.

The Toyota Prius Prime, Honda Clarity PHEV, and BMW i3 are also worthy of mention. Of course, the Prime has maintained second place on our sales chart by a pretty wide margin thus far this year. The Clarity PHEV secured an almost miraculous December, which was its first full month of sales. It succeeded again in February, edging it closer to the top competitors in the segment, but March is when it really started to shine, with over 1,000 deliveries. Though i3 sales were weak throughout 2017 and opened this year the same, March saw a surge.

Prime sales are in and show continued success, claiming the second spot once again on our chart thus far, only exceeded by the Tesla Model 3. Toyota sold 2,626 copies last month. We can only hope that Honda keeps inventory up for the newly popular Clarity PHEV, so that sales can continue to climb. BMW i3 sales are just about flat from last April, at 503.

While 2017 plug-in sales fell just shy of the 200,000 mark, it was still an extremely impressive year as a whole. Hitting that mark for 2018 should happen well before the end of the year. However, there are several variables involved in determining where we might be by the end of this year. Will we see 300,000?

Mercedes Expands Its Electric Car Plans For US And Chinese Markets

Mercedes is boosting its electric car investments in America and in China, reports Fortune. In the US, it builds the GLE and GLS SUV models and the GLE coupe at a factory near Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Earlier this year, it announced it would spend $1.3 billion to expand and modernize that facility, which built 310,000 vehicles in 2016.

Now Mercedes says it will invest a further $1 billion to make the Tuscaloosa plant ready to build electric cars and to build a battery factory nearby. The one million square foot battery manufacturing facility will be the fifth constructed by Mercedes worldwide. The plan is to begin the battery plant in 2018 with a target date for the start of production in 2020. The company says the expansion will create 600 new jobs in the area.

Manufacturing of electric cars, which will be sold under the EQ brand, is not expected to begin until 2021 at the earliest. While the new investment in America can be seen as a response to the growing demand for Tesla automobiles, the California company says it will have its own midsize electric SUV — the Model Y — on sale by 2020. Mercedes will begin producing its first electric SUV, the EQC, at its factory in Bremen, Germany, in 2019. Mercedes says all its cars will have an electric motor by 2022 — although, that statement includes hybrid and plug-in hybrid models as well as battery electric vehicles.

At the same time, Mercedes and BYD are looking to expand their partnership, which builds electric cars for the Chinese market under the Denza brand according to a report by Bloomberg. The two companies have been working together since 2012. BYD, partially backed by Warren Buffett, is currently China’s electric car sales leader. It has delivered nearly 50,000 EVs so far this year while General Motors has delivered fewer than 1,000.

China is pushing hard to convert its fleet of automobiles to electrics by 2030. It currently has the most rigorous EV quota system in the world. While the automakers all agree that China’s timetable for going all electric is far too aggressive, the fact is that China’s new car market — at nearly 25 million vehicles a year — is simply too large and too lucrative to give up on.

As China goes, so will the rest of the world go. Carmakers will need to spread the development costs of electric cars across all markets in order to continue being profitable in the future when electric cars go mainstream.

GKN eAxle Brings Supercar Technology To Plug-in Hybrid Cars

Whether we realize it or not, there are a lot of companies that supply major components to the automobile industry. As more and more cars adopt plug-in hybrid powertrains, the components that make them go are increasingly supplied by outside manufacturers. One such supplier is GKN, a European company that specializes in components for plug-in hybrid cars. Its products have been featured in some of the world’s most impressive supercars like the Porsche 918 Hybrid and the BWW i8 plug-in hybrid sports car. They are also found in the new Volvo XC90 T8 plug-in hybrid.

Now GKN wants to take what it learned from designing drive systems for those two cars and apply it to improving the powertrains of popularly priced cars, the ones that real people use every day. Its eAxle system will enable those vehicles to offer buyers a plug-in hybrid option with improved performance and a reduction in CO2 emissions of more than 50%, according to Next Gen Transportation News.

An evolution of the system GKN designed for the Porsche 918 Spyder, the single speed eAxle weighs less than 50 lbs. A two stage geartrain with a gear ratio of 12.5 provides up to 1,475 lb-ft of torque. It provides up to 87 horsepower for electric only driving and balances the torque applied to each wheel when used in all wheel drive mode. An electro-mechanical dog clutch disconnects the electric motor at higher vehicle speeds. An open coupling minimizes rotating losses when disengaged.

GKN says a typical small plug-in hybrid has about 134 horsepower from its gasoline engine. Adding a GKN eAxle with 87 additional horsepower available can improve 0 to 60 times by several seconds.  Front-wheel drive vehicle platforms can integrate GKN’s eAxle modules into the vehicle’s rear assembly to provide a combination of plug-in hybrid and electric all-wheel-drive functionalities. The eAxle can also be combined with GKN’s eTwinster torque vectoring technology to further improve driving dynamics.

You may not recognize the name GKN, but the chances are that if you drive a plug-in hybrid car in the future, GKN will be an important part of the powertrain in your car.